Maybe I expected too much, but I am a little disappointed in the US trials overall. Historically, the US swimmer will not improve between Trials and the Games (that is of course on average) and I really only see the Usual Suspects minus a few going for medals.
Men's Sprint Free -- Phelps in the 200 Free, nothing else looks really great.
Men's Distance -- Maybe the 1500 will be better- but no more than a 3rd in the 400.
Men's *** -- Kosuke is going to double, plus there is a whole bunch of people who will go under a minute and sub 2:10. Hansen was already in tears at Trials.
Men's Back -- no secret that I firmly believe in the "power of the new suits". If Peirsol will not wear a fullbody LZR, he is going to loose both Backstrokes. The Japanese kid just dropped 2 seconds from his trials and he was not even rested.
Men's Fly -- Phelps - of course -- maybe Crocker has been doing a Peirsol, so far, but he has not looked good. Stoval is going to have a hell of a time to repeat his amazing swims.
Mens IM - Lochte and Phelps seem like a lock
Womens Free - the 800, plus maybe a medal in the 400. We will see about the 50, but nothing more than a third.
Womens *** - Soni may be able to pull of a shocker in the 200 - but I am not even sure they will final in the 100
Womens Back - Coughlin -- maybe, there is now a dozen swimmers under a minute. Coventry seemed to be in amazing form
Womens Fly - they will have a hard time to final
Womens IM - that looks strong, but no locks either.
Swimmers who are not having great trials even though they made it: Vanderkaay - his 100 was 1/2 second off and all his times are the same as leading up (he swims well unrested, but he may be able to improve)
Hoff - here 100 Free was a full second slower than her best - and she was going for the relay
Hansen - obvious
Lochte - the armchair quarterback that is always smarter afterwards. Either him or his coach have been doing a terrible job with his race management. This is the trials - first and second are the same. There was absolutely no reason for him to put in that effort on the last 100 in the 400 IM. Not with the program he had left - he was over 7 seconds ahead of 3rd place. Then he swims prelims and Semis on the 200 Free -- why not drop the 1:45 in the morning and scratch the rest (like Phelps in the 100). He would have been much fresher for the 100 Back. Then he swims the semis in the 100 Free - but not the final ? What will that do - he is not going to be able to swim the 4x100 prelims with that - there are too many swimmers for that. He lost out on 3 potential medals with his race management (100 back / and both 400 relays).
About Lochte's race management: I don't know if I agree with you about the 400IM -- he has to feel pretty positive about beating the old record and pushing Phelps so strongly. And psychology is so important in this game.
But I WAS surprised he pushed the 200 back so hard. He wasn't going to have any trouble getting 2nd and that 200IM was coming up. What a brutal double. It sure IS easy to armchair-quarterback: he came so very close to winning both races, and if he had we would all be singing very different tunes.
But about that double: it is probably a good thing to duplicate the effort he is planning to give at the Olympics. Perhaps the 200 back is more important to him -- or he feels his chances at gold are better -- and the 200IM is just tacked on there to get what he can.
As for the rest, I don't really know enough about international swimming to argue with what you say. But I'll make the observation that your standards are pretty high if you are already discounting the chances of two people who just set new WRs in their events (Piersol and Coughlin) and if you say that another new WR holder (Hoff) is not having such a good meet!
Probably the biggest surprise to me...was that there weren't more BIG surprises. There were quite a few mild upsets, but -- as you say -- mostly the usual suspects. I almost liked it better when swimmers would retire after college and we would get a whole new crop of fresh faces! I was amazed at the number of times when a reigning or very recent NCAA champion was not even expected to contend seriously for a spot on the team.
About Lochte's race management: I don't know if I agree with you about the 400IM -- he has to feel pretty positive about beating the old record and pushing Phelps so strongly. And psychology is so important in this game.
But I WAS surprised he pushed the 200 back so hard. He wasn't going to have any trouble getting 2nd and that 200IM was coming up. What a brutal double. It sure IS easy to armchair-quarterback: he came so very close to winning both races, and if he had we would all be singing very different tunes.
But about that double: it is probably a good thing to duplicate the effort he is planning to give at the Olympics. Perhaps the 200 back is more important to him -- or he feels his chances at gold are better -- and the 200IM is just tacked on there to get what he can.
As for the rest, I don't really know enough about international swimming to argue with what you say. But I'll make the observation that your standards are pretty high if you are already discounting the chances of two people who just set new WRs in their events (Piersol and Coughlin) and if you say that another new WR holder (Hoff) is not having such a good meet!
Probably the biggest surprise to me...was that there weren't more BIG surprises. There were quite a few mild upsets, but -- as you say -- mostly the usual suspects. I almost liked it better when swimmers would retire after college and we would get a whole new crop of fresh faces! I was amazed at the number of times when a reigning or very recent NCAA champion was not even expected to contend seriously for a spot on the team.
