Maybe I expected too much, but I am a little disappointed in the US trials overall. Historically, the US swimmer will not improve between Trials and the Games (that is of course on average) and I really only see the Usual Suspects minus a few going for medals.
Men's Sprint Free -- Phelps in the 200 Free, nothing else looks really great.
Men's Distance -- Maybe the 1500 will be better- but no more than a 3rd in the 400.
Men's *** -- Kosuke is going to double, plus there is a whole bunch of people who will go under a minute and sub 2:10. Hansen was already in tears at Trials.
Men's Back -- no secret that I firmly believe in the "power of the new suits". If Peirsol will not wear a fullbody LZR, he is going to loose both Backstrokes. The Japanese kid just dropped 2 seconds from his trials and he was not even rested.
Men's Fly -- Phelps - of course -- maybe Crocker has been doing a Peirsol, so far, but he has not looked good. Stoval is going to have a hell of a time to repeat his amazing swims.
Mens IM - Lochte and Phelps seem like a lock
Womens Free - the 800, plus maybe a medal in the 400. We will see about the 50, but nothing more than a third.
Womens *** - Soni may be able to pull of a shocker in the 200 - but I am not even sure they will final in the 100
Womens Back - Coughlin -- maybe, there is now a dozen swimmers under a minute. Coventry seemed to be in amazing form
Womens Fly - they will have a hard time to final
Womens IM - that looks strong, but no locks either.
Swimmers who are not having great trials even though they made it: Vanderkaay - his 100 was 1/2 second off and all his times are the same as leading up (he swims well unrested, but he may be able to improve)
Hoff - here 100 Free was a full second slower than her best - and she was going for the relay
Hansen - obvious
Lochte - the armchair quarterback that is always smarter afterwards. Either him or his coach have been doing a terrible job with his race management. This is the trials - first and second are the same. There was absolutely no reason for him to put in that effort on the last 100 in the 400 IM. Not with the program he had left - he was over 7 seconds ahead of 3rd place. Then he swims prelims and Semis on the 200 Free -- why not drop the 1:45 in the morning and scratch the rest (like Phelps in the 100). He would have been much fresher for the 100 Back. Then he swims the semis in the 100 Free - but not the final ? What will that do - he is not going to be able to swim the 4x100 prelims with that - there are too many swimmers for that. He lost out on 3 potential medals with his race management (100 back / and both 400 relays).
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Keith - just to let you know - I have lived here (US) for a long time, but I am German -so it's not exactly a "we" for me. I generally pull for the US - unless it's soccer -- that's more of a religion than nationality.
My condolences on the Euro final. But congratulations on getting there.
I don't see this as pessimistic - just realistic. The US is the last country with trials - so everybody has had their shot. Many of the great swimmers from smaller countries did not have to go through trials, which I see as an advantage for them ( I saw an interview with Ryk Neethling a while ago and he was talking about having 10 weeks and 3 days until the 4x1 relay in Beijing). I agree. Swimmers like Jedrejczak and Cseh are able to focus in on the one meet. However, this hasn't precluded the major swimming countries like the U.S. and Australia from dominating in the past.
Also - many countries did not use the LZR at their trials. Check some of the swims from the recent meet in Japan compared to their trials - not just Kosuke. I doubt the Olympic bound swimmers were rested in June. I believe the Japanese did rest some for the Japan Open. Partly to gauge the suit's impact against trials. As much as the LZR contributes I don't think going 2 seconds faster unrested than rested within a short time frame is possible just from these suits. That blows the hypothesized 1.8% to 2.3% advantage out of the water. Given the national records across the board I'm certain they were rested to some degree. The American trials saw many competitors that did not beat their unrested times in the LZR from earlier this year.
Honestly - I may be wrong, but I "discount" many of the times based on the suit. The womens 100 *** -- last year we had maybe 4 or 5 non-US women swim under 1:08 -- this year it's already a dozen ? Before 2008 there were 3 women under 60 seconds in the 100 Back - now we have 13 and counting. Anybody who is doing the same time this year compared to last year -- has just gone one step back. Hardy's doing better than last year. She got 4th at Worlds despite not being in top shape and not breaking 1:07. She's been 1:06 four times this year. No other swimmer except Jones can say that and Jessica will be in the LZR like the others. The women's *** has a few more under 1:08 but still not impressive depth at the top. Most of the swimmers at the top were rested with those swims. Do you think the LZR's impact in *** is as significant as the Free, Back, and IMs?
It will be interesting to see if Salo's swimmers carry over to the Olympics as well as they did four years ago. Keller, Sandeno, Vendt, and Jensen did a nice job of having the trials propel them to even better performances at the games. As for the relays we've seen what all the major contenders have done rested in LZRs this year.
Keith - just to let you know - I have lived here (US) for a long time, but I am German -so it's not exactly a "we" for me. I generally pull for the US - unless it's soccer -- that's more of a religion than nationality.
My condolences on the Euro final. But congratulations on getting there.
I don't see this as pessimistic - just realistic. The US is the last country with trials - so everybody has had their shot. Many of the great swimmers from smaller countries did not have to go through trials, which I see as an advantage for them ( I saw an interview with Ryk Neethling a while ago and he was talking about having 10 weeks and 3 days until the 4x1 relay in Beijing). I agree. Swimmers like Jedrejczak and Cseh are able to focus in on the one meet. However, this hasn't precluded the major swimming countries like the U.S. and Australia from dominating in the past.
Also - many countries did not use the LZR at their trials. Check some of the swims from the recent meet in Japan compared to their trials - not just Kosuke. I doubt the Olympic bound swimmers were rested in June. I believe the Japanese did rest some for the Japan Open. Partly to gauge the suit's impact against trials. As much as the LZR contributes I don't think going 2 seconds faster unrested than rested within a short time frame is possible just from these suits. That blows the hypothesized 1.8% to 2.3% advantage out of the water. Given the national records across the board I'm certain they were rested to some degree. The American trials saw many competitors that did not beat their unrested times in the LZR from earlier this year.
Honestly - I may be wrong, but I "discount" many of the times based on the suit. The womens 100 *** -- last year we had maybe 4 or 5 non-US women swim under 1:08 -- this year it's already a dozen ? Before 2008 there were 3 women under 60 seconds in the 100 Back - now we have 13 and counting. Anybody who is doing the same time this year compared to last year -- has just gone one step back. Hardy's doing better than last year. She got 4th at Worlds despite not being in top shape and not breaking 1:07. She's been 1:06 four times this year. No other swimmer except Jones can say that and Jessica will be in the LZR like the others. The women's *** has a few more under 1:08 but still not impressive depth at the top. Most of the swimmers at the top were rested with those swims. Do you think the LZR's impact in *** is as significant as the Free, Back, and IMs?
It will be interesting to see if Salo's swimmers carry over to the Olympics as well as they did four years ago. Keller, Sandeno, Vendt, and Jensen did a nice job of having the trials propel them to even better performances at the games. As for the relays we've seen what all the major contenders have done rested in LZRs this year.
