The Usual Suspects

Maybe I expected too much, but I am a little disappointed in the US trials overall. Historically, the US swimmer will not improve between Trials and the Games (that is of course on average) and I really only see the Usual Suspects minus a few going for medals. I think on the the optimism-pessimism continuum you seem to be hanging out on the fringes. Maybe we define success differently. The U.S. has outperformed medal projections (based on pre-Olympic paper rankings) at the previous three Olympiads. I don't think it's useful to just focus on times. But I do remember soon after the Athens games someone on the USA Swimming forum calculated the comparisons of the Australian and U.S. trials and how they performed at the Olympics. The U.S. faired better and there was a discussion about why. Not everyone will perform up to their trials standards while some will exceed their trials performances by a good margin (e.g. Sandeno and Jensen in 04). But the tendency for some people to not reach expectations is certainly not limited to the U.S. Your dour outlook seems as if it assumes that swimmers around the world will meet or surpass recent performances while only the U.S. will stagnate. There may be countries that have trouble performing at the big international meets. Historically, for the most part the U.S. hasn't been one of them. Men's Sprint Free -- Phelps in the 200 Free, nothing else looks really great. I thought Lezak and Weber Gale looked good. Not the favorites. Not out of striking distance either. Vanderkaay was a little disappointing and still went 1:45. How many swimmers in the world go 1:45 and consider it a disappointment? Men's Distance -- Maybe the 1500 will be better- but no more than a 3rd in the 400. What's wrong with third? The U.S. has had two consecutive thirds. Went 3rd and 4th in Athens. This time the U.S. is sending two more solid contenders sitting in the Top 4 in the world (who are not far apart from each other). You're already handing the gold and silver to Park and Hackett? I think a medal of any color would be fine. There is no clear favorite in my opinion so a gold for the U.S. is not impossible either. The U.S medaled in four out of the five freestyles in Athens (all except the 100) and it was done with four different swimmers. I don't think it's outside the realm of possibility for that to happen again. Men's *** -- Kosuke is going to double, plus there is a whole bunch of people who will go under a minute and sub 2:10. Hansen was already in tears at Trials. So you're ruling any medals for the U.S.? Kitajima is favored to double. I don't think he's the runaway favorite in the 100 though. I'm not just talking about Hansen (though it sounds like you probably have written him off). Dale Oen and Dubosq have been under a minute. While I may not include Spann or Shanteau in my medal predictions a medal for either would not be a shock. After Kosuke there's not much separating the pack. Men's Back -- no secret that I firmly believe in the "power of the new suits". If Peirsol will not wear a fullbody LZR, he is going to loose both Backstrokes. The Japanese kid just dropped 2 seconds from his trials and he was not even rested. The same Irie who was scolded by his coach after Melbourne for his dismal performance? I'm open to the notion that they're not locks. But Peirsol "is going to lose." That's pretty strong given who we're talking about. There's always Ryan if Aaron can't bring it. But even the LZR didn't get Lochte to the wall ahead of Peirsol. Not to discount Irie but I would be more wary of Rogan spoiling the party. People with fast "in season" times don't impress me. Because as past Olympics have shown that guarantees nothing (e.g. Lenton was burning up 2004 "in season" when Henry was clocking 57s). Just look at many swimmers at trials who couldn't match their untapered times. Kathleen Hersey went 2:15 in the 200 fly three weeks before trials. Vandenberg and Descenza went 2:08 the same weekend. We thought we had it all figured out! Men's Fly -- Phelps - of course -- maybe Crocker has been doing a Peirsol, so far, but he has not looked good. Stovall is going to have a hell of a time to repeat his amazing swims. I agree. Crocker doesn't seem to have Aaron's steadiness. He may not medal unless he get things straightened out. Mens IM - Lochte and Phelps seem like a lock About as much as Kitajima. Is that the only scenario that you're bullish on an American swimmer's chances? When they've got a cushion in the rankings? Womens Free - the 800, plus maybe a medal in the 400. We will see about the 50, but nothing more than a third. Hoff looks solid but Z hasn't quite found the magic of last year yet. Then again she looked a little shaky in the lead up to Worlds last year too. No mention of Schmitt? I'm assuming you're dismissing her as a fluke then? A certain coach described her as the future of American middle distance. I agree and maybe sooner than some think. Womens *** - Soni may be able to pull of a shocker in the 200 - but I am not even sure they will final in the 100 They will final in the 100. The 100 *** is weak internationally. A 1:07.5 or better should punch a ticket to finals. There's not much depth outside the US and Australia. Hardy's the only non Australian swimmer going to the games that's been under 1:07 this year (four times) with a best of 1:06.3. The pressure to make the US team probably will exceed that at the Olympics where Jones is a massive favorite in both her events. Don't count out Jessica or Megan for a medal. Jessica's form this year suggests she has more potential than she showed at trials. Efimova is one to watch in the 200. Womens Back - Coughlin -- maybe, there is now a dozen swimmers under a minute. Coventry seemed to be in amazing form Part of that you'd probably agree is the LZR. A half second. Give or take. Puts her about where she was last year vis a vis the rest of the world. Yes, I think Coventry could be the star for the women at the Olympics. She'll definitely feature prominently in my predictions. Though Brackin's training style is similar to Yetter's so I don't expect massive time drops. Hoelzer and Beisel are in the hunt for medals in the 200. Womens Fly - they will have a hard time to final Not make the finals? Why? Hersey's been consistent at the big meets. She's gone four 2:07s (twice this year and twice last year). Brackin will love her. The women's fly is not deep in either the 100 fly or 200 fly internationally. Americans have three out of the top seven times in the world rankings in the 100. Only one of the top seven is not Australian or American. I have to say I'm impressed by NCAA champ Magnuson's stroke. Not to gloat but it appears I was the only one in your game to pick her. There will be no pressure and few expectations for the American flyers. That seemed to work for Vandenberg at Worlds last year (who dropped almost 2sec). Womens IM - that looks strong, but no locks either. I agree there's no certainty here. But Beisel is going to be phenomenal no matter what happens at the Olympics. It's great when you get a young IM prodigy because they can develop their talents across many disciplines. She has good freestyle potential down the line. I think they will be lucky to win 3 relays combined. I don't see the women winning either Free relay and I don't think the Men will win the 400 Free relay. The U.S. has three men below 48. Australia and France have one. The US is taking three other swimmers that have been faster than 48.5. For all the commotion about the French men that compares favorably. France may improve. But the U.S. is no longer an "underdog" If France and Australia follow through with the conventional wisdom by putting Sullivan and Bernard on the lead off it could be a mistake. The U.S. will likely lead off with a fresh Phelps who just kills the last 50 and is unlikely to cede a significant advantage to anyone. Then the U.S. can follow with Weber Gale, the "professional relay swimmer," and the best of the rest for the 4th leg. That's a strong team. The women's 4x200? Two women under 1:56 didn't impress you? Another on 1:56. Then add Coughlin. Lenton has withdrawn herself from the Australian 4x200 just like Britta Steffen. The Australian relay will be Rice, Barratt, Mackenzie. and?. They will have to figure out the 4th leg. Nobody else has been under 1:58. The Brits look great but there's a big drop off after the first three. The French look solid but have no swimmer under 1:57 this year and WR holder Manaudou has been awful on relays (at worlds and Olympics). This is the strongest US women's relay. The 4x100 relay will have difficulty. The Australians are strong favorites in the medley. I don't know how many relays the U.S. will win overall. I'll just say that we'll win more than Australia which is good enough for me! There are always some Americans that in their exuberance overlook international competitors and inflate expectations. You seem to be the other extreme. Over cautious and brimming with worst case scenarios. It's unlikely that the U.S. will repeat the dominance of Melbourne. Which if this thread is any indication you probably didn't see coming! But I don't think not winning more than half the golds should be seen as a failure. If we match Athens it will have been a successful Games in my opinion.

Maybe I expected too much, but I am a little disappointed in the US trials overall. Historically, the US swimmer will not improve between Trials and the Games (that is of course on average) and I really only see the Usual Suspects minus a few going for medals. I think on the the optimism-pessimism continuum you seem to be hanging out on the fringes. Maybe we define success differently. The U.S. has outperformed medal projections (based on pre-Olympic paper rankings) at the previous three Olympiads. I don't think it's useful to just focus on times. But I do remember soon after the Athens games someone on the USA Swimming forum calculated the comparisons of the Australian and U.S. trials and how they performed at the Olympics. The U.S. faired better and there was a discussion about why. Not everyone will perform up to their trials standards while some will exceed their trials performances by a good margin (e.g. Sandeno and Jensen in 04). But the tendency for some people to not reach expectations is certainly not limited to the U.S. Your dour outlook seems as if it assumes that swimmers around the world will meet or surpass recent performances while only the U.S. will stagnate. There may be countries that have trouble performing at the big international meets. Historically, for the most part the U.S. hasn't been one of them. Men's Sprint Free -- Phelps in the 200 Free, nothing else looks really great. I thought Lezak and Weber Gale looked good. Not the favorites. Not out of striking distance either. Vanderkaay was a little disappointing and still went 1:45. How many swimmers in the world go 1:45 and consider it a disappointment? Men's Distance -- Maybe the 1500 will be better- but no more than a 3rd in the 400. What's wrong with third? The U.S. has had two consecutive thirds. Went 3rd and 4th in Athens. This time the U.S. is sending two more solid contenders sitting in the Top 4 in the world (who are not far apart from each other). You're already handing the gold and silver to Park and Hackett? I think a medal of any color would be fine. There is no clear favorite in my opinion so a gold for the U.S. is not impossible either. The U.S medaled in four out of the five freestyles in Athens (all except the 100) and it was done with four different swimmers. I don't think it's outside the realm of possibility for that to happen again. Men's *** -- Kosuke is going to double, plus there is a whole bunch of people who will go under a minute and sub 2:10. Hansen was already in tears at Trials. So you're ruling any medals for the U.S.? Kitajima is favored to double. I don't think he's the runaway favorite in the 100 though. I'm not just talking about Hansen (though it sounds like you probably have written him off). Dale Oen and Dubosq have been under a minute. While I may not include Spann or Shanteau in my medal predictions a medal for either would not be a shock. After Kosuke there's not much separating the pack. Men's Back -- no secret that I firmly believe in the "power of the new suits". If Peirsol will not wear a fullbody LZR, he is going to loose both Backstrokes. The Japanese kid just dropped 2 seconds from his trials and he was not even rested. The same Irie who was scolded by his coach after Melbourne for his dismal performance? I'm open to the notion that they're not locks. But Peirsol "is going to lose." That's pretty strong given who we're talking about. There's always Ryan if Aaron can't bring it. But even the LZR didn't get Lochte to the wall ahead of Peirsol. Not to discount Irie but I would be more wary of Rogan spoiling the party. People with fast "in season" times don't impress me. Because as past Olympics have shown that guarantees nothing (e.g. Lenton was burning up 2004 "in season" when Henry was clocking 57s). Just look at many swimmers at trials who couldn't match their untapered times. Kathleen Hersey went 2:15 in the 200 fly three weeks before trials. Vandenberg and Descenza went 2:08 the same weekend. We thought we had it all figured out! Men's Fly -- Phelps - of course -- maybe Crocker has been doing a Peirsol, so far, but he has not looked good. Stovall is going to have a hell of a time to repeat his amazing swims. I agree. Crocker doesn't seem to have Aaron's steadiness. He may not medal unless he get things straightened out. Mens IM - Lochte and Phelps seem like a lock About as much as Kitajima. Is that the only scenario that you're bullish on an American swimmer's chances? When they've got a cushion in the rankings? Womens Free - the 800, plus maybe a medal in the 400. We will see about the 50, but nothing more than a third. Hoff looks solid but Z hasn't quite found the magic of last year yet. Then again she looked a little shaky in the lead up to Worlds last year too. No mention of Schmitt? I'm assuming you're dismissing her as a fluke then? A certain coach described her as the future of American middle distance. I agree and maybe sooner than some think. Womens *** - Soni may be able to pull of a shocker in the 200 - but I am not even sure they will final in the 100 They will final in the 100. The 100 *** is weak internationally. A 1:07.5 or better should punch a ticket to finals. There's not much depth outside the US and Australia. Hardy's the only non Australian swimmer going to the games that's been under 1:07 this year (four times) with a best of 1:06.3. The pressure to make the US team probably will exceed that at the Olympics where Jones is a massive favorite in both her events. Don't count out Jessica or Megan for a medal. Jessica's form this year suggests she has more potential than she showed at trials. Efimova is one to watch in the 200. Womens Back - Coughlin -- maybe, there is now a dozen swimmers under a minute. Coventry seemed to be in amazing form Part of that you'd probably agree is the LZR. A half second. Give or take. Puts her about where she was last year vis a vis the rest of the world. Yes, I think Coventry could be the star for the women at the Olympics. She'll definitely feature prominently in my predictions. Though Brackin's training style is similar to Yetter's so I don't expect massive time drops. Hoelzer and Beisel are in the hunt for medals in the 200. Womens Fly - they will have a hard time to final Not make the finals? Why? Hersey's been consistent at the big meets. She's gone four 2:07s (twice this year and twice last year). Brackin will love her. The women's fly is not deep in either the 100 fly or 200 fly internationally. Americans have three out of the top seven times in the world rankings in the 100. Only one of the top seven is not Australian or American. I have to say I'm impressed by NCAA champ Magnuson's stroke. Not to gloat but it appears I was the only one in your game to pick her. There will be no pressure and few expectations for the American flyers. That seemed to work for Vandenberg at Worlds last year (who dropped almost 2sec). Womens IM - that looks strong, but no locks either. I agree there's no certainty here. But Beisel is going to be phenomenal no matter what happens at the Olympics. It's great when you get a young IM prodigy because they can develop their talents across many disciplines. She has good freestyle potential down the line. I think they will be lucky to win 3 relays combined. I don't see the women winning either Free relay and I don't think the Men will win the 400 Free relay. The U.S. has three men below 48. Australia and France have one. The US is taking three other swimmers that have been faster than 48.5. For all the commotion about the French men that compares favorably. France may improve. But the U.S. is no longer an "underdog" If France and Australia follow through with the conventional wisdom by putting Sullivan and Bernard on the lead off it could be a mistake. The U.S. will likely lead off with a fresh Phelps who just kills the last 50 and is unlikely to cede a significant advantage to anyone. Then the U.S. can follow with Weber Gale, the "professional relay swimmer," and the best of the rest for the 4th leg. That's a strong team. The women's 4x200? Two women under 1:56 didn't impress you? Another on 1:56. Then add Coughlin. Lenton has withdrawn herself from the Australian 4x200 just like Britta Steffen. The Australian relay will be Rice, Barratt, Mackenzie. and?. They will have to figure out the 4th leg. Nobody else has been under 1:58. The Brits look great but there's a big drop off after the first three. The French look solid but have no swimmer under 1:57 this year and WR holder Manaudou has been awful on relays (at worlds and Olympics). This is the strongest US women's relay. The 4x100 relay will have difficulty. The Australians are strong favorites in the medley. I don't know how many relays the U.S. will win overall. I'll just say that we'll win more than Australia which is good enough for me! There are always some Americans that in their exuberance overlook international competitors and inflate expectations. You seem to be the other extreme. Over cautious and brimming with worst case scenarios. It's unlikely that the U.S. will repeat the dominance of Melbourne. Which if this thread is any indication you probably didn't see coming! But I don't think not winning more than half the golds should be seen as a failure. If we match Athens it will have been a successful Games in my opinion.