Yes - one more time it's about the suit:
Here is a comparison to 2004 and what it took to make top 16 (top 8 for the 400) over the first 7 events:
2004 listed first then 2008 then the approx. % drop
400 IM - 4:24.8 to 4:21.0 1.5%
100 Fly - 1:01.29 to 59.97 2%
400 Free - 3:55.0 to 3:51.4 1.6%
400 IM - 4:49.57 to 4:43.2 2.3%
100 Br - 1:04.0 to 1:02.36 2.5%
100 Bk - 1:04.12 to 1:02.31 2.6%
200 Free - 1:51.1 to 1:48.76 2.2%
Ok - to be fair, people are getting faster, but I would guess at least a 1.5% drop across the board for the suit -- that is net time !
Parents
Former Member
All the things you guys are describing show the improvements made in the last 20 years. More pros - better training - longevity of swimmers - and so on. And again this time around we would have seen another small improvement in times --- but please somebody explain the 200 Free improvements for men and women. They dropped more in the last 4 years than all 20 years before combined. I am not backing off anything - there is a massive drop of about 2% - just check all the events.
Again, again, again, the suit is likely helping to some degree (although not sure why it would help the 200FR more than any other event).
One hypothesis for a jump in performance in the U.S. men's 200FR is the 4-minute mile effect. Recall that once Bannister broke through that purportedly impossible barrier, others soon followed. Thorpe's record at 1:44.1 seemed pretty unattainable for a long time - the best US guys were hovering in 1:46/7 territory. Then Phelps drops a couple 1:45's, then the big 1:43.9. The rest of the US guys realize what they have to do to be a player in this event. They study his splits, see how he works his turns. Heck, several of the guys among the 200 FR elite train with Phelps every day (PVK, Vendt, Tarwater)--or are good friends with him (Lochte), or have coaches that share some training ideas (Bowman -->Reese). Phelps elevated everyone's game in this event.
All the things you guys are describing show the improvements made in the last 20 years. More pros - better training - longevity of swimmers - and so on. And again this time around we would have seen another small improvement in times --- but please somebody explain the 200 Free improvements for men and women. They dropped more in the last 4 years than all 20 years before combined. I am not backing off anything - there is a massive drop of about 2% - just check all the events.
Again, again, again, the suit is likely helping to some degree (although not sure why it would help the 200FR more than any other event).
One hypothesis for a jump in performance in the U.S. men's 200FR is the 4-minute mile effect. Recall that once Bannister broke through that purportedly impossible barrier, others soon followed. Thorpe's record at 1:44.1 seemed pretty unattainable for a long time - the best US guys were hovering in 1:46/7 territory. Then Phelps drops a couple 1:45's, then the big 1:43.9. The rest of the US guys realize what they have to do to be a player in this event. They study his splits, see how he works his turns. Heck, several of the guys among the 200 FR elite train with Phelps every day (PVK, Vendt, Tarwater)--or are good friends with him (Lochte), or have coaches that share some training ideas (Bowman -->Reese). Phelps elevated everyone's game in this event.
