To answer my own question...I think Crocker and Hansen are the most at risk. Crocker, because anyone could have one off race and he is basically banking on one swim to make the team. Hansen, because he's got pretty stiff competition in his two events (Gangloff and a number of guys capable of low-1:00 or better in the 100, Shanteau, Spann, Usher, Pogioli in the 200). But, more than that he seems like a guy who has been working harder than ever to overcome his "failure" in Athens. I fear he may not be fresh enough come Trials.
The interesting thing about Hansen is he is in the pool every day now with Shanteau and Spann. Three of the top 5 US breaststrokers in the same workout.
Crocker really is all about the 100 fly - but he and Phelps are a second and a half ahead of Grevers. Croker might lose to Phelps but still make the team easily.
I had the opportunity to meet Cullen Jones along with the dozen or so other swimmers our club is sending to trials last week at a pep rally/send off. He is quite charistmatic and they kids are awestruck around him, all of them really.
Will be interesting to see if Phelps actually does swim both 400's Sunday!!!! The reason I think he actually might is that the IM is the first final, followed by the Women's 100 Fly Semi....so he will have a few minutes to recuperate for the Free....and we all know he does not need as much recovery time as the mere mortal!!!!!! Personally, I'd like to see him do it........
So, which of the following "locks" for the US Olympic Team won't make it? I'm thinking about historic shockers like Pablo Morales and Craig Beardsley. There are others not on the list that might be big surprises (eg, Vendt, Vanderkaay, Torres, Kirk, etc.), but not quite on the level as these world record holders.
Men:
Michael Phelps
Aaron Peirsol
Brenden Hansen
Ian Crocker
Ryan Lochte
Women:
Natalie Coughlin
Katie Hoff
Kate Ziegler
