Do you know the swimmers distribution over the 5 years range of their age group?
Which answer do you believe is the right one?
(A) Uniform distribution (20, 20, 20, 20, 20)%. (Really don't care)
(B) Declining distribution (30, 25, 20, 15, 10)%. (The age group syndrome - AGS)
(c) Forget the last year (25, 25,25,25,)%. (The last year syndrome - LYS)
(D) All of the above.
(E) None of the above.
Looking at the Austin nationals spread sheet (men only, sorry), and without much statistical wisdom, it looks that:
(a) For the younger groups (25-29 up to 44-49) the A answer fits better (actual numbers : 21,19,19,24,15%)
(b) For the middle groups (50-54 to 65-69) the B option seams more appropriated (actual numbers: 33,26, 17, 14, 10).
(c) And for the (70-74 up to 90+) groups, answer C looks better (actual numbers: 27,22,24,22,5).
Open to other interpretations, and to check if the women also have the Age Group Syndrome...
over here I have looked at similar stats...also just for men
25-29 group is really small compared to what it could be
a lot of the active swimmers in this age group still compete outside of Masters
30-34 group is not much bigger
35-39 is on the rise
40-44 45-49, 50-54, 55-59 are the largest groups
60-64, and so on up to 90-92 the numbers are stagered
my guess is afters school most want a break to get a job. then you want to work hard and have no extra time to swim, and those who want to don't feel 1-2 times a week is worth the effort, then you get married start building a family and its harder to find time. by the time you are 40 you start to realize something is missing from your life but you don't know what it is, you start swimming again and feel good about it. the over 60 age groups are stagered maybe because of retirement, people tend to travel more, want to see their grandkids.... we only have one 90-94 and he competes at most or all major meets. he's even made the trek to Australia.
over here I have looked at similar stats...also just for men
25-29 group is really small compared to what it could be
a lot of the active swimmers in this age group still compete outside of Masters
30-34 group is not much bigger
35-39 is on the rise
40-44 45-49, 50-54, 55-59 are the largest groups
60-64, and so on up to 90-92 the numbers are stagered
my guess is afters school most want a break to get a job. then you want to work hard and have no extra time to swim, and those who want to don't feel 1-2 times a week is worth the effort, then you get married start building a family and its harder to find time. by the time you are 40 you start to realize something is missing from your life but you don't know what it is, you start swimming again and feel good about it. the over 60 age groups are stagered maybe because of retirement, people tend to travel more, want to see their grandkids.... we only have one 90-94 and he competes at most or all major meets. he's even made the trek to Australia.
