LZR - It's Faster, but by how much ?

Would Phelps have broken a world record in just a regular Speedo??? How many of the swimmers that received a free LZR did not set world records??? Which swim wear broke the most world records when you count how many of each suit was worn??? Was there a good swimmer in any swim suit that won or broke the world record? How many world records were broken by the swimsuit its self? Can we say buy a LZR and set a world record? I'm guessing no one who has set a world record wearing the LZR had to pay for the suit.

... reasonable choice of p. You mean alpha :) You're kind of missing the point, though. This is what I've been arguing with Chris about. Statistical significance never proves anything. We could look at time drops for each year in the past decade, and correlate that with a binary value for whether the LZR was available in that year (1 for 2008, 0 for all other years), and I bet we would get a low p-value. Obviously 2008 has been a big year for time drops, and you can just eyeball the data and see that it's an outlier. But that does not prove that the LZR makes people faster, and it doesn't say anything about drag reduction versus expectation.

Here's a new number for the "it's obvious" crowd: the LZR-adjusted time. Since wearing an LZR obviously causes a time drop 2% in every event automatically, you can take any time and add 2% (which we'll simplify to one second per 100m) to get the time the swimmer would have done without the LZR. At Trials this year, Michael Phelps swam the 200 free in 1:44.10, wearing a LZR. Adjusted, this comes out to over 1:46. That's pretty slow for Phelps. Luckily, he made up for it in the Olympics with a 1:42.96, which is just under 1:45 after adjusting. Pretty good, but still a full second off his FSII world record from last year. Aaron Peirsol wore a LZR in the 100 back finals at Trials, and set a new world record in 52.89. His adjusted time is just under 54, which is odd, considering that he swam a 53.26 the night before in his Nike suit, unshaved. If these adjusted times seem absurd, it's because they are. In every case I've seen of swimmers switching suits, the suit never makes a big difference in times. So, really, the only evidence anyone has that the LZR is a fast suit is that it was introduced right around when records started falling. As I've said before, this makes sense if you consider the effect that expectation can have on athletic performance.

2% I agree is excessive... but your logic that the only evidence is that the suit happened to be introduced right when records started falling is pretty absurd. What is more likely, the suit that speedo argues was scientifically designed to reduce drag and increase performance maybe actually does some of what it claims, or that it's all a hoax and it was pure luck that all these records starting getting demolished by huge margins since the release of the suit and that almost every broken record was swam by someone with the LZR? I can't believe anyone can be that naive to think it's most likely the latter. (Again, it MAY turn out to be the latter.. but how likely is it?) Here's a new number for the "it's obvious" crowd: the LZR-adjusted time. Since wearing an LZR obviously causes a time drop 2% in every event automatically, you can take any time and add 2% (which we'll simplify to one second per 100m) to get the time the swimmer would have done without the LZR. At Trials this year, Michael Phelps swam the 200 free in 1:44.10, wearing a LZR. Adjusted, this comes out to over 1:46. That's pretty slow for Phelps. Luckily, he made up for it in the Olympics with a 1:42.96, which is just under 1:45 after adjusting. Pretty good, but still a full second off his FSII world record from last year. Aaron Peirsol wore a LZR in the 100 back finals at Trials, and set a new world record in 52.89. His adjusted time is just under 54, which is odd, considering that he swam a 53.26 the night before in his Nike suit, unshaved. If these adjusted times seem absurd, it's because they are. In every case I've seen of swimmers switching suits, the suit never makes a big difference in times. So, really, the only evidence anyone has that the LZR is a fast suit is that it was introduced right around when records started falling. As I've said before, this makes sense if you consider the effect that expectation can have on athletic performance.

Jazz is there any possibility that his time is better because he trained to be faster. Do you guarantee every one will be 2% faster if they pay $550 for a swim suit. Also how much faster is he then if he wore an old speedo brief. Would that be 3, 4, or 5% faster. Now can we truly say that Phelps could not have won 8 golds if he did not wear the LZR? Now did Phelps cheat because he wore a LZR if it is later found that these suits are illegal in the future. Will he have to forfeit his medals? Will there be congressional hearings about using a banned swim suit.

Swam Zones in my B70. Tried to compare 2 swims to last year. Unfortunately, due to my worst masters mistake ever and other confounding factors, :violin:, I don't have the best comparisons and they may have no validity. 50 fly LCM: 2007 (with recordbreaker Pro) 31.6 2008 (with B70) 31.1 50 back, LCM: 2007 (with recordbreaker Pro) 33.4 2008 (with B70) 33.4 (slipped on the start -- usually an asset -- for the first time ever; I have a very embarrassing video of the incident to corroborate my whine) Other possible comparisons: 100 back, LCM: 2007 (with recordbreaker, tapered) 1:14.1 2008 (unrested, with B70), 1:13.6 50 free, LCM 2007 (with recordbreaker, tapered): 29.2 2008 (with B70, unrested) 29.3 I did not have high expectations going into the meet, but, absent the error on the backstroke start, I would nonetheless have been faster in backstroke and was in fact faster in fly. I will say that I had a huge bubbling effect in the 50 back going from my upper back to my lower back that was almost "parachute" like. In 3 prior backstroke swims, I had not experienced that. Didn't enjoy that much, especially after the disastrous start. I only saw one B70 rip at the meet -- nails! One Pro rip -- nails! Michael Ross did not wear his B70 for his WR backstroke swims at Zones. Wally Dicks reported a slight "float" effect in his 100 breaststroke. Jim Thornton had his full body Pro stolen and, in any event, did not find any advantage over his FS II kneeskin.

A question or two Fort, are you in better shape now swiming in your Blue 70? Or when you swam in your with recordbreaker Pro? Is your technique better now than it was before? George, I felt like I was in pretty good shape (for me .. it's all relative) last summer at Zones. Before the IGLA meet this June, that was probably my best meet ever. I was likewise in pretty darn good shape this summer in June until late July, and perhaps stronger from weight lifting. (I prefer LC and always feel in better shape generally.) Had a bad month of training before Zones due to a bunch o' crap. I didn't feel quite as "strong" this weekend as when I swam a few events in June and July (my two unrested times from above were from a USA meet in early July). My technique in fly and back is mostly the same, but they are my two best strokes technique wise. My starts seem to get worse on a daily basis, as I never have much chance to practice them. But I usually do a pretty good backstroke start; unfortunately, I slipped badly yesterday. At the time, I was pretty disappointed with my 50 back. I actually felt better when Michael Ross commiserated with me and said if you slip at the start, "it's all over." (Note: His backstroke starts were truly awe inspiring!) Moral of the story: I really have to find a way to practice starts!

A question or two Fort, are you in better shape now swiming in your Blue 70? Or when you swam in your with recordbreaker Pro? Is your technique better now than it was before?

One other note for Chris. The 31.1 I swam in the 50 fly with the B70 yesterday converts to the same time I swam in Austin with a high neck Pro, according to the Great Bay Masters converter.

Leslie I did some snooping at www.usms.org/.../toptenind.php you dropped from 31.61 in 2007 to 31.1 in 2008 that's good I think 31.1 LCM is faster than 27.76 SCY you also beat your 2007 31.37 SCM time Ande One other note for Chris. The 31.1 I swam in the 50 fly with the B70 yesterday converts to the same time I swam in Austin with a high neck Pro, according to the Great Bay Masters converter.