First off I think the live webcast that USA is providing over at the USA Swimming site is great and I look forward to tonight's swims starting at 6:00 EST. Last night there were some great races especially the distance free. Eric Vendt swam to a personal best from 7 years ago when he was the first American to go under 15 minutes in the 1500 Free. He dropped his best time of 14:59.11 by 2 seconds and can make his third Olympic team if he keeps going. Rebecca Soni is getting closer to Amanda Beard's American Record and has served notice that she is the one to watch in the future. Last year about this time the fastest time by an American was almost 4 seconds slower than what she swam last night. Kate Ziegler went out and was on record pace around the 350 and then had to just swim to win and hold off Katie Hoff in the 800 Free. Katie Hoff seems to improve in every event she swims and that was an impressive 800 Free.
Tonight we have some great races. In the Women's 400 IM I think 3 swimmers could win this and I pick Kurkors to win over Leverenz and Smit. In the Men's 400 IM you would think that without Phelps in this event that Ryan Lochte would win easily but that is not the case. Judging from the way Vendt swam last night I see this as an even match. Ryan Lochte beat Vendt out by a second last year to get on the Pan Pac team so he has is work cut out for him.
In the Women's 100 Free, Dara Torres would become the first 40 year old to win a National Championship. She already has the record from 2000 as the oldest to win a National Championship at 33. I am picking Amanda Weir to win based on her swims in the prelims. In the Men's 100 Free its a pick up race. Maybe one of the South Africans will win since they have had a dry spell in the last two years. I think Wildman-Tobriner could be the outside smoke and win.
In the Womens 200 Back, I will go with either Katie Hoff or the young Elizabeth Beisel. I give Hoff the advantage because Beisel is swimming the 400 IM and that is a tough double to swim. Which brings us to the race of the night. The Men's 200 Back pits rivals Phelps agianst Ryan Lochte. Last year Phelps beat Lochte by a second but a lot has changed since then. I am not sure who is the favorite but since Lochte has never beaten Phelps in any event in a National or International Championship, it would be hard to make him the favorite. However, he is the World Record holder now and the way he swam in the prelims, he seemed to shut down his race because he knew he would qualify for the finals. He was out in :56.54 at the 100 and was 1.5 ahead of Phelp's time at the 100 so his 2 minute time from the preliims does not mean much. I have a hard time picking against Michael the way he swimming this year and with Ryan swimming the 400 IM earlier I just can't pick against him.
I think tonight we are really going to see what Ryan Lochte is about and if he can challenge Phelps in 2008. If he could win these races that would prove that he is in for the challenge. If he splits the events, then he is where he was last year. If he loses both events and loses them badly then he has to go back to the drawing board and analyze. As Jeff said we all know he is getting closer to Michael Phelps but he has to do it in key races, like right now and since this is his best event, he has to do it now to start the meet right. Then we can look forward to the 200 IM and 100 Back later in the meet.
Great analysis! I think I'm going to sit in front of my computer a lot tonight and watch the webcasts. As a 40+, I have to root for Torres. I think Wildman-Tobriner is a great pick. I'd love to see Lochte win the 200 back, but I'm picking Phelps.
Soni swam a great race. It will be interesting to compare how Amanda Beard does in Paris. I read that Jessica Hardy doesn't like Indy ...
First off I think the live webcast that USA is providing over at the USA Swimming site is great and I look forward to tonight's swims starting at 6:00 EST. Last night there were some great races especially the distance free. Eric Vendt swam to a personal best from 7 years ago when he was the first American to go under 15 minutes in the 1500 Free. He dropped his best time of 14:59.11 by 2 seconds and can make his third Olympic team if he keeps going. Rebecca Soni is getting closer to Amanda Beard's American Record and has served notice that she is the one to watch in the future. Last year about this time the fastest time by an American was almost 4 seconds slower than what she swam last night. Kate Ziegler went out and was on record pace around the 350 and then had to just swim to win and hold off Katie Hoff in the 800 Free. Katie Hoff seems to improve in every event she swims and that was an impressive 800 Free.
Tonight we have some great races. In the Women's 400 IM I think 3 swimmers could win this and I pick Kurkors to win over Leverenz and Smit. In the Men's 400 IM you would think that without Phelps in this event that Ryan Lochte would win easily but that is not the case. Judging from the way Vendt swam last night I see this as an even match. Ryan Lochte beat Vendt out by a second last year to get on the Pan Pac team so he has is work cut out for him.
In the Women's 100 Free, Dara Torres would become the first 40 year old to win a National Championship. She already has the record from 2000 as the oldest to win a National Championship at 33. I am picking Amanda Weir to win based on her swims in the prelims. In the Men's 100 Free its a pick up race. Maybe one of the South Africans will win since they have had a dry spell in the last two years. I think Wildman-Tobriner could be the outside smoke and win.
In the Womens 200 Back, I will go with either Katie Hoff or the young Elizabeth Beisel. I give Hoff the advantage because Beisel is swimming the 400 IM and that is a tough double to swim. Which brings us to the race of the night. The Men's 200 Back pits rivals Phelps agianst Ryan Lochte. Last year Phelps beat Lochte by a second but a lot has changed since then. I am not sure who is the favorite but since Lochte has never beaten Phelps in any event in a National or International Championship, it would be hard to make him the favorite. However, he is the World Record holder now and the way he swam in the prelims, he seemed to shut down his race because he knew he would qualify for the finals. He was out in :56.54 at the 100 and was 1.5 ahead of Phelp's time at the 100 so his 2 minute time from the preliims does not mean much. I have a hard time picking against Michael the way he swimming this year and with Ryan swimming the 400 IM earlier I just can't pick against him.
I think tonight we are really going to see what Ryan Lochte is about and if he can challenge Phelps in 2008. If he could win these races that would prove that he is in for the challenge. If he splits the events, then he is where he was last year. If he loses both events and loses them badly then he has to go back to the drawing board and analyze. As Jeff said we all know he is getting closer to Michael Phelps but he has to do it in key races, like right now and since this is his best event, he has to do it now to start the meet right. Then we can look forward to the 200 IM and 100 Back later in the meet.
Great analysis! I think I'm going to sit in front of my computer a lot tonight and watch the webcasts. As a 40+, I have to root for Torres. I think Wildman-Tobriner is a great pick. I'd love to see Lochte win the 200 back, but I'm picking Phelps.
Soni swam a great race. It will be interesting to compare how Amanda Beard does in Paris. I read that Jessica Hardy doesn't like Indy ...
