I dont see the next generation of swimmers in the usa being as good as the current one. There is michael phelps and the texas trio who dominate almost all of the events. I don't see the usa being that deep in 2012 or 2016. We got ryan lochte and cullen jones on the rise but thats only 3 or 4 events right there. Will the usa ever have this much depth again.
I dont see the next generation of swimmers in the usa being as good as the current one. There is michael phelps and the texas trio who dominate almost all of the events. I don't see the usa being that deep in 2012 or 2016. We got ryan lochte and cullen jones on the rise but thats only 3 or 4 events right there. Will the usa ever have this much depth again.
I don't think we can possibly know that now. The kids that would be the "stars" in 2012 or 2016 would be between 6-12 now. How can we possible know. Who really knew who Katie Hoff was before 04, Phelps before 00, Lochte before 03, Peirsol before 03, etc. The stars have a way of making their presence known at just the right time.
Yes, because no one can really know what that 6 year old swimmer can do in 10-15 years. And the ones that are stars right now in the 6-12 year old span may not be stars then, may move on, get injured, whatever.
If Colorado swimming is any indication of the rest of the country, the depth in this sport for younger male swimmers is very concerning. Age group meets around here typically have 1/2 to 2/3rds as many males as females in each event (i.e. in the 9-10, 11-12 age groups). It's sad to watch. Sure there are a few outstanding kids, but the overall numbers are not impressive.
I'm sure there will be several super performers from the US in every Olympics in swimming, but the days of the 1970s are truly gone. Depth is key, especially for winning relays. Take a look at our sprinters at Greece in the 100 free. That was a surprisingly disappointing event. Perhaps it is already happening.
We shall see........... fingers are crossed.
John Smith
I look at sports domination like the White House. The power will shift like a pendelum as time goes on. You might have your party or country in the lead position for a few terms or games but eventually you are bound to lose control of your position. It takes the right person at the right time to claim supremacy in the the Olympics and there is no way we can expect to remain dominant for decades at a time. It just can't happen.
I see a few factors playing in:
* Continued efforts by USA Swimming and other swim organizations to encourage racial/ethnic diversity in our sport. Traditionally swimming has a perception as being for upper middle class white kids. In my area, the general population demographics are going to shift towards non-white and possibly non-English speaking in a few years. It only makes sense to make our sport attractive and inclusive.
* More successful efforts to stop the bleeding of NCAA schools dropping men's swimming teams. These programs are a major source of pools and quality new coaches besides developing Olympic talent in a high-caliber training environment.
* Improved opportunities for post-collegiate swimmers to continue training at a high level (it is difficult to hold down a "career" well paying job when you are training twice a day for 5 hours and traveling to meets weekends)
* Local support to ensure that new facilities are suitable for training and competition, and that existing facilities aren't rennovated to make them unusable. There is a lot of interest in cheap zero-depth "spraygrounds" and "aquatic centers" with slides and fountains INSTEAD of facilities that can support swim lessons and swim teams.
