Ho Hum Crocker goes a 44.7

Here is how I seee Phelps Olympic Schedule: 400 IM in Prelims and Finals. 400 Free relay in finals. Plenty of rest between the 400 IM and 400 free relay (2 Golds). Day 2 I think he will do the 200 Free and sit the 100 back. He can dog the prelims, go a 1:47 in Semi's and still have a restful day. --Edit: the 400 Free relay is day 2, not day 1 --- Day 3 200 FLy in Prelims, 200 Free in Finals, and 200 Fly Semi. Again looking at the Scedule, it is very likely that Phelps swims the 200 free at the OLY (2 Golds & 1 Silver). Day 4 - No prelim swims. Finals though he will have to swim the 200 Fly get an hour rest and swim the 800 Free relay (I THINK that is when the 800 FR falls) (3 Golds & 2 Silver [though I think the US can win this relays, AUS is still the favorite) day 5 - This will be an interesting day. Can he swim the 200 back and 200 IM on the same day? I think he will "risk" it and swim both events. Prelims and Semi will only require moderate effort, so that you should be okay. Day 6 - THe toughest day of the meet: Prelims, 100 fly. No problem. But at night, he swim the 200 back at 100% effort. 30 minutes later he does the 200 IM. To win, he does not need max effort, but this is the Olympic finals, so he will be gunning it. another 45 minute rest and then the 100 fly Semifinal (4 Golds 3 Silver). Day 7 - 100 FLy final, will he be too tired to beat Crocker? No morning swim, which is a break (4 Golds - 4 Silver) Day 8 - 400 Medly relay. Who knows what will happen. I too foresee Crocker doing the free leg. Keep in mind, if this is the case, then Crocker probably has a bag full of Gold medals himself. Two guys with 5 golds? Pretty cool! (Final Tally: 5 Golds, 4 Silver and one TIRED swimmer)

Pretty good guess but I don't think Phelps will swim the 200 in Athens. I think he'll swim it at Olympic Trials and then scratch down before Athens. That way, he's on the relay (technically he just needs to finish in the top six since he will qualify in other events). Based on the way he swam the 200 at Nationals, (pulling back too much on the second 50 and failure to descend on the 3rd 50) he's no match for Thorpe and perhaps Hoogie in Athens. UNLESS....he swims the 200 at a Spring meet and demonstrates to his coach and himself that he can find the right tempo. He's still a long way from 1:44 low...though he might be the best 200 swimmer in the US (unless of course Crocker realizes his youthful potential). Phelps should be able to recover enough to win the 200 IM. He's so far ahead of the field, this is the one event where he's Spitz-like. So... I see 200/400 IM, 200 FL, 200 BA, 4 individual golds, plus 2 relay golds (400 free, 400 medley) for Phelps and 2 silvers (800 free relay and 100 fly. 6 golds and 2 silvers. Crocker's not far behind and if he has the meet of his life could nearly match Phelps if he can snatch gold in the 50/100 free to add to his 100 fly, and 2 relays gold.

In the past, Jon Olson in 1996 comes to mind and Aaron Peirsol at the 03 Wchamps, deciding the relays really has been the coaches discretion. In 1996 Olson (I THINK) swam the 800 free relay in prelims because he thought he was one of the 4 fastest. The coaches let him prove it (he didn't). Interesting side note, the guy who won trials in the 200 (and 400) free, John Peirsma, was not on either the prelims or finals relay. Bad meet.

Wow. I read in the latest "Swimming Technique" that freestyle was his best stroke when he first went to Texas. How amazing is it that Texas has Crocker, Peirsol and Hansen. That is just an obscene amount of talent. How is Auburn No. 1? They must have more depth, because I can't imagine that the top of their line-up is any better. Hook'em Blue

Bob, from what I understand that back in 2000 the NCAA stated that until every NCAA Division I program had a 50 meter pool for training that the meet would not be held Long Course. At that time over 80% of the schools had a 50 meter pool. A comprise was made that in an Olympic year the NCAA would be swam Short Course Meters. At first a lot of coaches didn't like it but back in 2000, 5 World and 9 Americans Records were set at the Men's meet. In the Women's meet, 2 World and 6 American Records were set. Now with the FINA World Cup being so popular this gives people that are not eligible to swim in those competitions during the NCAA season a chance to compare there times against the worlds best in the Short Course Meters format. I think the coaches like it now for those reasons. It will be real interesting to see people like the Texas crew swim Short Course Meters and see if they can break records and compare against the World Cup Times. Can Aaaron Peirsol break a 1:49.00 for the 200 Back. Can Brenden Hansen match what Moses did in the World Cup meets. How many World Reords can Ian Crocker get at his last NCAA meet. Can all three of these guys get the World Records in both the 200 & 400 Medley Relays like they did last year when they got the American Records in both relays at 2003 NCAA meet. Both NCAA meets will be real good and exciting.

Still....if we're going to compete in meters than why not LCM? I can understand keeping Div II and Div III short course yards but Div I time standards are as strict, or stricter than Olympic Trials cuts. By swimming LCM these swimmers get one more chance to test themselves at the Olympic distance and for NCAA swimmers who missed Spring Nationals (and that is just about everyone) this is valuable added experience. Also for those on the "bubble" they can get OT qualifying times (since short course yard times do not count for OT). I believe that a poll conducted earlier this year (collegeswimming.com?) showed that most NCAA coaches now prefer LCM to SCM in Olympic years.

And if the NCAA is standing by it's "everyone must have an LCM pool" position, well a few more men's programs bit the dust (and a couple of women's too, once the AD's use Title IX to kill the men's program, and then figure out how much more money they can save by having no swim team at all, but I digress...) so perhaps the laggards aren't swimming anymore? Sorry, a bit of black humor I couldn't resist. Matt P.S. LCM RULES; SCY SUCKS!! The former is a swimming competition, the later is a turning and breath holding contest.

I agree with you there Matt. Long course is hard but I do better in it. I notice that some people I beat in long course beat me in short course. Also, the masters QT's are easier meters since more master swimmers prefer to swim yard meets.

Another reason for masters to try to appeal more to younger people with the dropping of college programs. Most colleges like to keep the big three since the media is a lot more interest in them. Also, when I swam 2 years of community College, I didn't want to swim 2 more at the four year since the swimmers on the average were faster at the four year level. Masters back in the 1970's didn't let you swim meets until 25 years old, So I quit meets at 20 and didn't come back until 45. Masters could reach out more to swimmers like myself who would not be bad in the 19-24 year old age group but the slowest swimmers at many 4 year colleges.

Hey, Let's see: Piersol to Hansen to Crocker to...does it matter? Guess we know who will win the medley relay at NCAA Championships. With a front three like that, the Longhorns could have Harvey the Wonder Chicken swimming the anchor, and still win the race. Matt