Nice of Ian and his coaches to let the world know that he's "decided" not to pursue 7 gold medals in Athens. Hey Aussie, could this massive decision have anything to do with the fact that Phelps is 3.5 seconds ahead of you in the 200IM and you have NO CHANCE of getting a gold? Oh BTW, Thorpe won't get any higher than bronze in the 100 free.
Former Member
I agree with you on the fact that Thrope can't win the 200 Im or 100 meter freestyle. He wanted the olympics to ad the 800 meter when they didn't he was upset. He is more of a middle distance freestyler and loses most of his 3.5 seconds to Phelps who has a much better breaststroke. Anyway, the prelims, semi-finals and finals makes it more difficult for anyone to win 7 gold like Spitz did and of course three of Spitz's medals were relays. Back in the 1970's, the US men were so far ahead that unless they got DQ they were going to win the relays at the olympics.
I think besides his better breaststroke, Phelps has a much better butterfly and backstroke, and is just slightly behind now on freestyle (1.3 seconds).
Phelps could win: My predictions:
100 fly 50.5
200 fly 1:52.5
200 backstroke 1:53.0
200 IM 1:54.0
400 IM 4:04.0
Medley relay
I have been following his improvement in breaststroke, he could also be world class in that stroke one day. A couple of 400 IMers are world class in the 200 ***, 2:12 or better. Phelps no longer looses ground to them:p
Phelps could also swim the 200 free, probably go 1:45.3 but I doubt that would win.
Also the 200 breaststroke will take a 2:07 to win:p There will be 3 swimmers below 2:10.
The 100 breaststroke will probably go at 58.2, but Moses has a 57.5 in him. All depends on how well he swims. There are at least 5 swimmers who could win the 100. Hardest thing in the world is to swim great on just one day out of many years of training.
Any more predictions from others? I am sure Swim Magazine will have their predictions out soon.
I'd put Phelps on the 400 and 800 FR too, the US has a shot at gold on those too. With the alternates swimming, those are also less heats for everyone to swim.
I think Phelps will swim the 4 X 100 relay. He might swim the 4 X 200 relay but the US is not likely to win unless someone else shows up who can do a 1:46 with a flat start.
I also think there is a fair chance he'll lose the 100 fly. This is his "weakest" event among his likely Olympic swims. He is still not lifting weights, breathes every stroke cycle and is notorious for starting his sprints "slow."
So following Wayne's thread I agree with his other prediction, but have no clue as to times, but think he'll lose in the 100 fly.
BTW, can you imagine how fast Phelps will be in 2008 when he matures physically and starts lifting weights? Perhaps the first swimmer under 50 for the 100 fly by 2008?
Also, as Wayne noted Phelps is quite a good breaststroker...he managed to outsplit Clements, a world class swimmer, in the breaststroke leg of his 200 IM!
