Phelps going to Oz in November

Come on, Thorpe in the 100 fly? Are you kidding. If the guy goes a 52.5 that would be unbelievable but no where close to Crocker. Phelps is another story: He is definitely doing the 100/200 fly and the 200/400 IM. To break Spitz record, he would need to win either the 400 free, 200 free, 200 back, or possibly the 100 back. I believe that the 400 free / 400 IM double IS possible, with the only problem being that the 400 free and 4x100 relay are the same day. Atleast that was the case in Sydney. And there is no doubt in my mind that Phelps will be on all 3 US relays.

Lefty: First, the Olympic schedule is set. Go to: www.athens2004.com/.../SW_en.HTML Note that the 400 free and 400 im are on the same day--hence my feeling that he would elect to swim that event. (The men's 4 x 100 free relay is not the first day). So...it's not likely he'll elect to challenge Thorpe/Hackett in the 400 free when there is lower hanging fruit to pick so as... 200 free (if he doesn't swim this event he rests entirely the second day) or, as you point out the 200 back (but it does require a double with the 200 IM) or 100 back (but it overlaps with the 200 free and wouldn't he have a better chance in the 200 free given that Thorpe is not improving and he's already proven he can beat Hackett? versus swimming against a still strong Peirsol?) We'll see how Thorpe swims this Fall. I wouldn't be surprised if elected the 100 fly but he'll probably have to prove he can beat Welsh before he can challenge Phelps.

It's unlikely that he'll swim the 400 since it's the same day as the 400 IM on the Olympic schedule. However, it's very likely that he'll swim the 200 head-to-head against Thorpe since Phelps other events (fly, 200 IM) come later in the schedule. It's also unlikely that he'll swim the 200 back (maybe his next best chance to win a gold after his IM/Fly) because it overlaps with some of his other strong events. Of course, Phelps and Bowman are mum about it all--they won't reveal their plans until after the US Olympic trials (scheduled one month before Athens). I think he's gunning for five individual golds, five individual world records--that would legimately put his performance above Spitz's Olympic performance because in 1972 swimming on the US men's relay was almost a gold medal certainity. International parity has changed that. Phelps vs Thorpe in the 200 free? I think Phelps beats him head-to-head but might not break Thorpe's world record. Unlike Thorpe, Phelps continues to improve in this event and in one year will develop enough power to take out the first 100 faster. On the other hand, will Thorpe try his hand at the 100 fly? It's Phelps "weakest event" and Crocker had an amazing swim but is not untouchable.