It was easy to change the script to output a .csv file ...
But it was hard to resist the urge to play with it. Recall, in the Motivational Times, Column X is the average of the 10th place time over the previous three years; all other columns are just scaled copies of it. So we might as well just play with Column X.
The first graph is a (somwhat edited) version of what you get if you just graph Column X. I threw out the longer events and the IM's, so the horizontal axis represents 50s, 100s, and 200s of each stroke. The vertical axis is time in seconds. If you look closely, you can see the variations due to age and sex. The thing that impressed me most about this graph was how similar the shape of the curve is, over age groups, regardless of distance, stroke, or sex.
forums.usms.org/attachment.php
So in the second graph, I first divided the times for the 100s by 2, and the 200s by 4, to get the average time per 50, regardless of distance. Then I summed the times for each age group, regardless of stroke or distance, giving a total time for men & women by age group. The curves are almost parallel, but not quite.
forums.usms.org/attachment.php
For the third graph, I combined men & women, and normalized the overall time so that AG 18-24 = 100; all higher AGs can be interpreted as some percentage slower. What I find remarkable is how slowly performance deteriorates -- 10th place times even in the 50-54 age group are within 10% of the times in 18-24! Another impressive feature is how lawful the curve looks (yes, there's a lot of averaging going on).
forums.usms.org/attachment.php
So I invented a little holiday game for myself, called, "Are you ahead of the game?" The way this game is played, you pick some time in some event you did at a younger age, and then multiply by the appropriate factors to predict your time at your current age. If you're faster than predicted, you're ahead of the game! What fun!
For example, I did a 1:48 in the 200 free as an 18 year old senior in high school in 1976. 1:48 = 108 seconds. I did a 2:03 at Senior Games Nationals as a 55 year old in 2013. 2:03 = 123 seconds. Am I ahead of the game, or not?
Younger Time in sec * ( Older Factor / Younger Factor ) = Predicted Older Time in sec
108 * ( 114.81 / 100.00 ) = 123.99 >> 2:03.99 ... I am ever so slightly ahead of the game!
The factors are,
AG
Factor
18-24
100.00
25-29
100.81
30-34
102.88
35-39
104.38
40-44
105.49
45-49
107.05
50-54
109.49
55-59
114.81
60-64
123.22
65-69
135.87
70-74
156.47
75-79
190.36
80-84
214.17
It was easy to change the script to output a .csv file ...
But it was hard to resist the urge to play with it. Recall, in the Motivational Times, Column X is the average of the 10th place time over the previous three years; all other columns are just scaled copies of it. So we might as well just play with Column X.
The first graph is a (somwhat edited) version of what you get if you just graph Column X. I threw out the longer events and the IM's, so the horizontal axis represents 50s, 100s, and 200s of each stroke. The vertical axis is time in seconds. If you look closely, you can see the variations due to age and sex. The thing that impressed me most about this graph was how similar the shape of the curve is, over age groups, regardless of distance, stroke, or sex.
forums.usms.org/attachment.php
So in the second graph, I first divided the times for the 100s by 2, and the 200s by 4, to get the average time per 50, regardless of distance. Then I summed the times for each age group, regardless of stroke or distance, giving a total time for men & women by age group. The curves are almost parallel, but not quite.
forums.usms.org/attachment.php
For the third graph, I combined men & women, and normalized the overall time so that AG 18-24 = 100; all higher AGs can be interpreted as some percentage slower. What I find remarkable is how slowly performance deteriorates -- 10th place times even in the 50-54 age group are within 10% of the times in 18-24! Another impressive feature is how lawful the curve looks (yes, there's a lot of averaging going on).
forums.usms.org/attachment.php
So I invented a little holiday game for myself, called, "Are you ahead of the game?" The way this game is played, you pick some time in some event you did at a younger age, and then multiply by the appropriate factors to predict your time at your current age. If you're faster than predicted, you're ahead of the game! What fun!
For example, I did a 1:48 in the 200 free as an 18 year old senior in high school in 1976. 1:48 = 108 seconds. I did a 2:03 at Senior Games Nationals as a 55 year old in 2013. 2:03 = 123 seconds. Am I ahead of the game, or not?
Younger Time in sec * ( Older Factor / Younger Factor ) = Predicted Older Time in sec
108 * ( 114.81 / 100.00 ) = 123.99 >> 2:03.99 ... I am ever so slightly ahead of the game!
The factors are,
AG
Factor
18-24
100.00
25-29
100.81
30-34
102.88
35-39
104.38
40-44
105.49
45-49
107.05
50-54
109.49
55-59
114.81
60-64
123.22
65-69
135.87
70-74
156.47
75-79
190.36
80-84
214.17
