There being no objections, herewith the final versions:
8589
8590
8591
The notes below are now appended to each set of tables.
Bonus!
I also made these tables, which track the 10th place times for all events for the last seven years. This will give you some idea how the 10th place time varies from year to year in your favorite events.
8592
8593
8594
-------------------------------------
Motivational times (MTs) are calculated from the base time given in Column X. The algorithm for calculating the base time is similar, but not identical to, the method USMS uses to calculate national qualifying times (NQTs) for the annual SCY national championships.
Most of the time, Column X is
(A) the average of the previous three year’s 10th place times.
However, if there are fewer than three 10th place times over the previous three years, we use, in order,
(B) average of two 10th place times over the previous three years. If there are fewer than two 10th place times,
(C) average of three 5th place times + 4.45%. If there are fewer than three,
(D) average of two 5th place times + 4.45%. If there are fewer than two,
(E) No Time (NT).
If one of the alternatives B-E is used, it’s indicated by a superscript.
The rest of the columns are proportional to Column X as follows,
AAAA = X + 5% A = X + 20%
AAA = X + 10% BB = X + 30%
AA = X + 15% B = X + 40%
For MTs, the same algorithm is used for all three courses, SCY, LCM, and SCM.
Relationship to NQTs. For SCY, as long as Column X is calculated using method A, B, or E, Columns AA and AAA should be,but are not guaranteed to be, exactly the NQTs for sprints and 200+ events respectively. However, there will be some small differences for methods C and D. For LCM, the MTs should be different from the NQTs in all cases. USMS does not publish NQTs for SCM or for age groups 85+.
Column X. I like to think of Column X as “the moral equivalent of a Top Ten time”. Of course, in any given year, the 10th place time will be faster or slower by some amount than the average of the three previous years, so of course, Column X is not an actual Top Ten time. Too bad, huh? You can also think of it as “the time I need to hit to have about a 50/50 chance.”
... In SCY I had an "A" time and in SCM I had an "AAA" time. Granted in the SCY I missed an "AA" time by less than a quarter second, but surprised by the different outcomes.
You shouldn't be surprised: The columns in the motivational times are not at all quality metrics, in the same sense as Chris's VA calculator, and shouldn't be used for time conversions.
Motivational times could, in principle, be used for time conversion, but only if approximately the same top ten swimmers compete in each course, under approximately the same conditions. That your SCM time was "AAA" while your SCY time was "A" tells you that a different (somewhat slower) group of swimmers compete in SCM, under different conditions (no SCM national championships, for instance).
... In SCY I had an "A" time and in SCM I had an "AAA" time. Granted in the SCY I missed an "AA" time by less than a quarter second, but surprised by the different outcomes.
You shouldn't be surprised: The columns in the motivational times are not at all quality metrics, in the same sense as Chris's VA calculator, and shouldn't be used for time conversions.
Motivational times could, in principle, be used for time conversion, but only if approximately the same top ten swimmers compete in each course, under approximately the same conditions. That your SCM time was "AAA" while your SCY time was "A" tells you that a different (somewhat slower) group of swimmers compete in SCM, under different conditions (no SCM national championships, for instance).
