I assume that most of us believe that we could swim substantially faster, IF.
IF we won a huge lottery payout, or a IF some swim suit vendor decided that what they really needed was an ordinary masters swimmer to promote their product and paid us sufficient money to:
· Quit work.
· Hire an army of helpers to do yard work, clean the house, run the kids around, cook, do shopping, pay the bills, buy a reliable car etc.
· Hire a great coach.
· Hire a personal trainer.
· Buy access to our own lane at a great weather-proof pool to match our schedule - and that of a few great training partners.
· Hire a masseuse.
· Hire a dietician.
· ...
But that aint 'gonna happen, so I put forth this hypothetical:
Consider your best times in your two best events over the last two years.
Given the current constraints on your lifestyle, (training time, sleeping time, ...) if you did your best to improve in those two events, how much do you believe you could lower your times over the next year or so.
It's interesting that, so far, the most probable responses are: 0, 1, 5, 10 & 15. I wonder if that's just because these are "round" numbers so-to-speak. Clearly though, it's a broad multi-modal distribution. I wonder what basis folks have for believing that they could improve 10% or more. Are they new to swimming? Recovering from an injury or illness? Really lackadaisical about their current training? About to hit a growth spurt? I spent about 2.5 years knocking my 100 back time down by 1.5s. 10% is totally excellent.
It's interesting that, so far, the most probable responses are: 0, 1, 5, 10 & 15. I wonder if that's just because these are "round" numbers so-to-speak. Clearly though, it's a broad multi-modal distribution. I wonder what basis folks have for believing that they could improve 10% or more. Are they new to swimming? Recovering from an injury or illness? Really lackadaisical about their current training? About to hit a growth spurt? I spent about 2.5 years knocking my 100 back time down by 1.5s. 10% is totally excellent.
