Seems to have held very steady through out the decades. Women seem to always be about .90 time wise of the men's performance. Some interesting science why that always may be the case.
www.theatlantic.com/.../
If the women's record is lower than usual -- say, .85 of the men's, then there's likely room for improvement in the women's record. And likewise, if the women's record stands somewhat higher than 90 percent -- .93, .94 or .95 -- the men's record can likely improve.
Interesting... if I'm using excel right, here are the Men's records most likely to fall:
1500*m freestyle - 0.924119931
400*m freestyle - 0.920217437
200*m butterfly - 0.915442082
800*m freestyle - 0.915037442
Women's records likely to fall:
50*m freestyle - 0.881163085
50*m backstroke - 0.888396157
4×100*m freestyle relay - 0.88909881
100*m butterfly - 0.8899607
Nothing in the .93-.95 range for the men and nothing near .85 for the women.
Using the magical .9 value, Sun Yang (or some other male) could go 14:08. However, it seems fishy that all the women's records "likely to fall" are sprints (or relay sprints) and all the men's are distance. Seems that other factors may be in play.
If the women's record is lower than usual -- say, .85 of the men's, then there's likely room for improvement in the women's record. And likewise, if the women's record stands somewhat higher than 90 percent -- .93, .94 or .95 -- the men's record can likely improve.
Interesting... if I'm using excel right, here are the Men's records most likely to fall:
1500*m freestyle - 0.924119931
400*m freestyle - 0.920217437
200*m butterfly - 0.915442082
800*m freestyle - 0.915037442
Women's records likely to fall:
50*m freestyle - 0.881163085
50*m backstroke - 0.888396157
4×100*m freestyle relay - 0.88909881
100*m butterfly - 0.8899607
Nothing in the .93-.95 range for the men and nothing near .85 for the women.
Using the magical .9 value, Sun Yang (or some other male) could go 14:08. However, it seems fishy that all the women's records "likely to fall" are sprints (or relay sprints) and all the men's are distance. Seems that other factors may be in play.
