Phelps owned the 200 IM for years.
Lochte beat him, and took the World Record, at last year's world championships.
Ryan Lochte NEW World Record 200m Individual Medley - YouTube
In the process, Lochte became the first person to set a LCM world record in the post-tech suit era. Only one other WR has fallen since--the Chinese guy who beat Hackett's 1500 m record.
In the course of writing up an article on Lochte for Men's Health, I asked him and some of his coach's about the Lochte-Phelps rivalry, and I didn't get terribly far.
What I need is a knowledgable source (or sources) who can discuss their respective odds objectively and be willing to be quoted. Perhaps a world class coach who has no ties to either one? Any suggestions?
In the meantime, what do you guys think?
Who has the edge in terms of each stroke?
Phelps better in fly?
Lochte better in back?
It seemed in their race at World's, Lochte gained some in ***? But was this just a fluke?
Equal in free?
What about speed vs. endurance? Phelps isn't swimming the 400 IM, right? But he was always noted more for 200-400 greatness, a bit less for all out sprinting (with the exception, maybe, of the 100 fly)? Isn't Lochte the same way?
Which of the two has more sprinting speed?
What about endurance?
At this level, what is the 200 IM considered--a long sprint or a short mid-D race?
What about mental attitude? Now that Lochte has emerged from Phelps' shadow in a top level competition, do you think he's ever going back? Was last year's Worlds a fluke for Phelps or a genuine changing of the guard?
Any insights would be tremendously appreciated!
This is a great analysis.
I agree, Mr. Couroboros, for a self-described un-knowledgeable source, this makes a lot of sense.
I have had the luck to interview both these fellows--Mr. Phelps by phone for a very rushed 20 minutes, and Mr. Lochte in person down in Gainesville last week.
I know it's horribly unfair to judge people based on a very short exposure, especially when they are not only the best athletes in their sport in the world, but when they are under intense training pressure and endless media demands.
That said, I found Lochte to be MUCH more likable than Phelps. There was something about his combination of super laid back/relaxed in "normal" life attitude, and pitiless predator savagery during training and races, that was really impressive.
In your analysis, you made the point that Phelps is being motivated a bit more by a negative (fear of damage to his legacy) and Lochte a bit more by a positive (desire to demonstrate before the world stage his greatness as a swimmer.)
Obviously, both have the corollary incentives, too--i.e., Phelps would like to further gild his golden reputation, and Lochte surely doesn't want to go down in history as a bridesmaid.
Still, if you are correct in your idea that Phelps is largely trying to avoid a bad outcome, and Lochte is largely trying to ensure a good outcome, it may come down to the psychology of which of these is more powerful a motivator.
The conventional wisdom would suggest fear trumps hope, as evidenced by a joke I heard a while back.
A man is dying, and the local priest tries to get him to accept Jesus. He spends hours talking up how great heaven will be to those who are saved. Still the dying man refuses to go for it.
The priest, depressed and ready for a drink, is telling his story of failure in a local bar. One of the patrons says, "Let me give it a shot." The priest is dubious but agrees to take the patron over to the dying man's house.
The bar patron goes and emerges 5 minutes later and tells the priest, "He's a believer now."
The priest, dumbstruck, asks, "How did you make him want to go to heaven?"
The patron says, "I didn't. I made him fear Hell."
So, if this joke has any truth to it, Phelps will win.
However, in talking with Lochte, I got a real sense that he doesn't fear any bad outcomes--from a bad race to, presumably, hell!
I don't know.
Between liking him more and thinking he has the most unusual competitive psychology I have ever run into, I'd like to think Lochte will win.
It's probably good that Intrade doesn't have a market for this, because putting money on this would be difficult either way.
This is a great analysis.
I agree, Mr. Couroboros, for a self-described un-knowledgeable source, this makes a lot of sense.
I have had the luck to interview both these fellows--Mr. Phelps by phone for a very rushed 20 minutes, and Mr. Lochte in person down in Gainesville last week.
I know it's horribly unfair to judge people based on a very short exposure, especially when they are not only the best athletes in their sport in the world, but when they are under intense training pressure and endless media demands.
That said, I found Lochte to be MUCH more likable than Phelps. There was something about his combination of super laid back/relaxed in "normal" life attitude, and pitiless predator savagery during training and races, that was really impressive.
In your analysis, you made the point that Phelps is being motivated a bit more by a negative (fear of damage to his legacy) and Lochte a bit more by a positive (desire to demonstrate before the world stage his greatness as a swimmer.)
Obviously, both have the corollary incentives, too--i.e., Phelps would like to further gild his golden reputation, and Lochte surely doesn't want to go down in history as a bridesmaid.
Still, if you are correct in your idea that Phelps is largely trying to avoid a bad outcome, and Lochte is largely trying to ensure a good outcome, it may come down to the psychology of which of these is more powerful a motivator.
The conventional wisdom would suggest fear trumps hope, as evidenced by a joke I heard a while back.
A man is dying, and the local priest tries to get him to accept Jesus. He spends hours talking up how great heaven will be to those who are saved. Still the dying man refuses to go for it.
The priest, depressed and ready for a drink, is telling his story of failure in a local bar. One of the patrons says, "Let me give it a shot." The priest is dubious but agrees to take the patron over to the dying man's house.
The bar patron goes and emerges 5 minutes later and tells the priest, "He's a believer now."
The priest, dumbstruck, asks, "How did you make him want to go to heaven?"
The patron says, "I didn't. I made him fear Hell."
So, if this joke has any truth to it, Phelps will win.
However, in talking with Lochte, I got a real sense that he doesn't fear any bad outcomes--from a bad race to, presumably, hell!
I don't know.
Between liking him more and thinking he has the most unusual competitive psychology I have ever run into, I'd like to think Lochte will win.
It's probably good that Intrade doesn't have a market for this, because putting money on this would be difficult either way.
