he first must get through the USA 2012 Olympic Trials
His 2012 OT schedule should the same as 2008. I'm very sure he'll swim the 100 free prelims and semi's, doubt he'll swim the 1 fr finals, because it splits his 2 bk & 2 IM semis. I'm sure he could cruise his 2 bk semi and still make finals, he could punch a fast 1 free in finals, but he's not likely to make top 2 and might not want to endanger his 2 IM. It's a tough schedule. Plus consider warm ups, warm downs, interviews and showing up to the ready room for each race, he's going to be super busy. He'll be very fast and well prepared. The difference is 100 back, with Piersol out, he's got a better chance to make top 2 but USA's got a lot of really great 100 backstrokers & so far Lochte seems better at 200's.
USA's Top 100 bk times for 2010 & 11
53.01 Thoman,
53.04 Plummer
53.05 Grevers,
53.69 Lochte
53.71 Phelps,
54.20 Owens
54.22 Russel
54.31 Godso
54.45 Bal
54.56 Hesen
from FINAs world Rankings
Probably going to take 52.8 to make the team
100 bk & 100 free are the 2 big questions for Lochte.
Lochte's 2012 OT Schedule
Monday, June 25
Men's 400m IM
Women's 100m Fly
Men's 400m Free
Women's 400m IM
Men's 100m ***
Men's 400m IM - Final
Women's 100m Fly - Semifinal
Men's 400m Free - Final
Women's 400m IM - Final
Men's 100m *** - Semifinal
Tuesday, June 26
Women's 100m Back
Men's 200m Free
Women's 100m ***
Men's 100m Back
Women's 400m Free
Women's 100m Fly - Final
Men's 200m Free - Semifinal
Women's 100m *** - Semifinal
Men's 100m *** - Final
Women's 400m Free - Final
Men's 100m Back - Semifinal
Women's 100m Back - Semifinal
Wednesday, June 27
Women's 200m Free
Men's 200m Fly
Women's 200m IM
Women's 200m Free - Semifinal
Men's 200m Free - Final
Women's 100m Back - Final
Men's 100m Back - Final (he'll probably race this but is likely to be tired from his 2 fr)
Women's 100m *** - Final
Men's 200m Fly - Semifinal
Women's 200m IM -- Semifinal
Thursday, June 28
Men's 100m Free will probably swim to post a time
Women's 200m Fly
Men's 200m ***
Men's 100m Free - Semifinal MIGHT SWIM
Women's 200m Free - Final
Men's 200m Fly - Final
Women's 200m Fly - Semifinal
Men's 200m *** - Semifinal
Women's 200m IM - Final
Friday, June 29
Women's 100m Free
Men's 200m Back
Women's 200m ***
Men's 200m IM
Men's 200m *** - Final
Women's 100m Free - Semifinal
Men's 200m Back - Semifinal
Women's 200m Fly - Final
Men's 100m Free - Final Unlikely to swim
Women's 200m *** - Semifinal
Men's 200m IM - Semifinal
Saturday, June 30
Men's 50m Free
Women's 800m Free
Men's 100m Fly
Women's 200m Back
Men's 50m Free - Semifinal
Women's 200m *** - Final
Men's 200m Back - Final
Women's 200m Back - Semifinal
Men's 200m IM - Final DONE
Women's 100m Free - Final
Men's 100m Fly - Semifinal
Sunday, July 1
Women's 50m Free
Men's 1500m Free
Women's 200m Back - Final
Men's 100m Fly - Final
Women's 800m Free - Final
Men's 50m Free - Final
Women's 50m Free - Semifinal
Monday, July 2
No Preliminaries
Women's 50m Free - Final
Men's 1500m Free - Final
USA Men's 100 Free Top times 2010 & 11
48.05 Adrian, Nathan USA OQT 2011 FINA World Champs Shanghai CHN 24/07/2011
48.08 Phelps, Michael USA OQT 2011 FINA World Champs Shanghai CHN 24/07/2011
48.47 Lezak, Jason USA OQT 2010 Pan Pacific Champs Irvine USA 18/08/2010
48.49 Weber-Gale, Garrett USA OQT 2011 FINA World Champs Shanghai CHN 24/07/2011
48.94 Berens, Ricky USA OST 2011 Winter National Champs Atlanta USA 01/12/2011
48.99 Feigen, Jimmy USA 2011 Conoco Phillips National 02/08/2011
49.01 Walters, Dave USA OST 2010 National Champs Irvine, CA USA 03/08/2010
49.06 Tarwater, Davis USA 2011 Conoco Phillips National 02/08/2011
49.22 Grevers, Matt USA 2011 Conoco Phillips National 02/08/2011
49.39 Savulich, Bobby USA 2011 Conoco Phillips National 02/08/2011
49.40 Brunelli, Nick USA 2011 Conoco Phillips National 02/08/2011
49.51 Jones, Cullen USA OST 2010 National Champs Irvine, CA USA 03/08/2010
49.53 Copeland, William USA OST 2011 Pan American Games Guadalajara MEX 16/10/2011
Knowing what we all know of Lochte, I think he will make the team for 4x100 free, but as Ande points out making the 4x100 medley will be tough. He then has to think about his schedule and find more individual events.
I just can't see it. I can't see him taking it all on, and I can't see the US winning the 4x100 free. The one thing that would change my mind on it is having 2 of the biggest racers there are on the team in Phelps and Lochte - even if they aren't specialists. Here's another good analysis -
www.pullbuoy.co.uk/.../how-lochte-could-win-9-golds-but-can-he-do-it
he first must get through the USA 2012 Olympic Trials
His 2012 OT schedule should the same as 2008. I'm very sure he'll swim the 100 free prelims and semi's, doubt he'll swim the 1 fr finals, because it splits his 2 bk & 2 IM semis. I'm sure he could cruise his 2 bk semi and still make finals, he could punch a fast 1 free in finals, but he's not likely to make top 2 and might not want to endanger his 2 IM. It's a tough schedule. Plus consider warm ups, warm downs, interviews and showing up to the ready room for each race, he's going to be super busy. He'll be very fast and well prepared. The difference is 100 back, with Piersol out, he's got a better chance to make top 2 but USA's got a lot of really great 100 backstrokers & so far Lochte seems better at 200's.
USA's Top 100 bk times for 2010 & 11
53.01 Thoman,
53.04 Plummer
53.05 Grevers,
53.69 Lochte
53.71 Phelps,
54.20 Owens
54.22 Russel
54.31 Godso
54.45 Bal
54.56 Hesen
from FINAs world Rankings
Probably going to take 52.8 to make the team
100 bk & 100 free are the 2 big questions for Lochte.
Lochte's 2012 OT Schedule
Monday, June 25
Men's 400m IM
Women's 100m Fly
Men's 400m Free
Women's 400m IM
Men's 100m ***
Men's 400m IM - Final
Women's 100m Fly - Semifinal
Men's 400m Free - Final
Women's 400m IM - Final
Men's 100m *** - Semifinal
Tuesday, June 26
Women's 100m Back
Men's 200m Free
Women's 100m ***
Men's 100m Back
Women's 400m Free
Women's 100m Fly - Final
Men's 200m Free - Semifinal
Women's 100m *** - Semifinal
Men's 100m *** - Final
Women's 400m Free - Final
Men's 100m Back - Semifinal
Women's 100m Back - Semifinal
Wednesday, June 27
Women's 200m Free
Men's 200m Fly
Women's 200m IM
Women's 200m Free - Semifinal
Men's 200m Free - Final
Women's 100m Back - Final
Men's 100m Back - Final (he'll probably race this but is likely to be tired from his 2 fr)
Women's 100m *** - Final
Men's 200m Fly - Semifinal
Women's 200m IM -- Semifinal
Thursday, June 28
Men's 100m Free will probably swim to post a time
Women's 200m Fly
Men's 200m ***
Men's 100m Free - Semifinal MIGHT SWIM
Women's 200m Free - Final
Men's 200m Fly - Final
Women's 200m Fly - Semifinal
Men's 200m *** - Semifinal
Women's 200m IM - Final
Friday, June 29
Women's 100m Free
Men's 200m Back
Women's 200m ***
Men's 200m IM
Men's 200m *** - Final
Women's 100m Free - Semifinal
Men's 200m Back - Semifinal
Women's 200m Fly - Final
Men's 100m Free - Final Unlikely to swim
Women's 200m *** - Semifinal
Men's 200m IM - Semifinal
Saturday, June 30
Men's 50m Free
Women's 800m Free
Men's 100m Fly
Women's 200m Back
Men's 50m Free - Semifinal
Women's 200m *** - Final
Men's 200m Back - Final
Women's 200m Back - Semifinal
Men's 200m IM - Final DONE
Women's 100m Free - Final
Men's 100m Fly - Semifinal
Sunday, July 1
Women's 50m Free
Men's 1500m Free
Women's 200m Back - Final
Men's 100m Fly - Final
Women's 800m Free - Final
Men's 50m Free - Final
Women's 50m Free - Semifinal
Monday, July 2
No Preliminaries
Women's 50m Free - Final
Men's 1500m Free - Final
USA Men's 100 Free Top times 2010 & 11
48.05 Adrian, Nathan USA OQT 2011 FINA World Champs Shanghai CHN 24/07/2011
48.08 Phelps, Michael USA OQT 2011 FINA World Champs Shanghai CHN 24/07/2011
48.47 Lezak, Jason USA OQT 2010 Pan Pacific Champs Irvine USA 18/08/2010
48.49 Weber-Gale, Garrett USA OQT 2011 FINA World Champs Shanghai CHN 24/07/2011
48.94 Berens, Ricky USA OST 2011 Winter National Champs Atlanta USA 01/12/2011
48.99 Feigen, Jimmy USA 2011 Conoco Phillips National 02/08/2011
49.01 Walters, Dave USA OST 2010 National Champs Irvine, CA USA 03/08/2010
49.06 Tarwater, Davis USA 2011 Conoco Phillips National 02/08/2011
49.22 Grevers, Matt USA 2011 Conoco Phillips National 02/08/2011
49.39 Savulich, Bobby USA 2011 Conoco Phillips National 02/08/2011
49.40 Brunelli, Nick USA 2011 Conoco Phillips National 02/08/2011
49.51 Jones, Cullen USA OST 2010 National Champs Irvine, CA USA 03/08/2010
49.53 Copeland, William USA OST 2011 Pan American Games Guadalajara MEX 16/10/2011
Knowing what we all know of Lochte, I think he will make the team for 4x100 free, but as Ande points out making the 4x100 medley will be tough. He then has to think about his schedule and find more individual events.
I just can't see it. I can't see him taking it all on, and I can't see the US winning the 4x100 free. The one thing that would change my mind on it is having 2 of the biggest racers there are on the team in Phelps and Lochte - even if they aren't specialists. Here's another good analysis -
www.pullbuoy.co.uk/.../how-lochte-could-win-9-golds-but-can-he-do-it
