As a counterpoint to my personal data, though, it should be noted that, on average I swim about 25% of the weekly volume now versus what I did when I was a teenager and in college. I'm pretty sure that, if I could raise my training to 75% of where I used to be, with some smarter addition of strength work and race pace, my distance times could be closer (on a percentage basis) to my best than my shorter distance times.
It is an interesting conjecture -- that if you ramped up your training closer to HS/college levels your distance events would be as close to your bests as your shorter events -- but despite you're being "pretty sure," it is just an opinion devoid of data.
A complication in your case is that I imagine that you trained primarily for distance, so your best times in short events might be more accessible than your best times in the longer events. That fact may taint the personal data you gave, skewing them to favor the shorter events over the longer.
In LCM, I trained equally for the 100 and 200 fly while in college and I think I did about equally well in them by the standards of the time (eg, world rankings were very similar). My personal data based on this year is:
100 fly: +6.86% (55.4 to 59.2)
200 fly: +13.30% (2:01.8 to 2:18.0)
More training would probably improve both of these and probably would improve the 200 more than the 100. But I can't ever see the 200 fly getting as close, relatively speaking, to my career best as the 100 fly. (But of course this is just opinion, too.)
I wonder if Janet was rested at all for the meet. If not, both 400 and 800 times were very good and she should have no trouble getting the OTs, a very impressive feat for anyone in their 40s, regardless of events. I would be shocked if she made it to the finals of Trials, though; it would be nice to see!
As far as Dara vs Janet...didn't Dara make the OT cut (or come very close) at 2006 Masters Worlds, something like 1 month after delivery when she was in her upper 30s? I have a hard time imagining a distance swimmer managing that feat! (Actually, I have a hard time imagining anyone else doing that in ANY event.) As far as "fitness" level, however defined, unless Janet medals in London in 2012 I think we'd have to give the nod to DT.
As a counterpoint to my personal data, though, it should be noted that, on average I swim about 25% of the weekly volume now versus what I did when I was a teenager and in college. I'm pretty sure that, if I could raise my training to 75% of where I used to be, with some smarter addition of strength work and race pace, my distance times could be closer (on a percentage basis) to my best than my shorter distance times.
It is an interesting conjecture -- that if you ramped up your training closer to HS/college levels your distance events would be as close to your bests as your shorter events -- but despite you're being "pretty sure," it is just an opinion devoid of data.
A complication in your case is that I imagine that you trained primarily for distance, so your best times in short events might be more accessible than your best times in the longer events. That fact may taint the personal data you gave, skewing them to favor the shorter events over the longer.
In LCM, I trained equally for the 100 and 200 fly while in college and I think I did about equally well in them by the standards of the time (eg, world rankings were very similar). My personal data based on this year is:
100 fly: +6.86% (55.4 to 59.2)
200 fly: +13.30% (2:01.8 to 2:18.0)
More training would probably improve both of these and probably would improve the 200 more than the 100. But I can't ever see the 200 fly getting as close, relatively speaking, to my career best as the 100 fly. (But of course this is just opinion, too.)
I wonder if Janet was rested at all for the meet. If not, both 400 and 800 times were very good and she should have no trouble getting the OTs, a very impressive feat for anyone in their 40s, regardless of events. I would be shocked if she made it to the finals of Trials, though; it would be nice to see!
As far as Dara vs Janet...didn't Dara make the OT cut (or come very close) at 2006 Masters Worlds, something like 1 month after delivery when she was in her upper 30s? I have a hard time imagining a distance swimmer managing that feat! (Actually, I have a hard time imagining anyone else doing that in ANY event.) As far as "fitness" level, however defined, unless Janet medals in London in 2012 I think we'd have to give the nod to DT.
