I've created a Nationals Event Picker, by special request, at a coffee hangout post-practice. Just in time before 2026 Summer Nationals registration ends on July 13th.
The Nationals Event Picker helps you select events to register for at Summer or Spring Nationals, recommended based on your likelihood of earning a Top 10 medal, using data from the last three years of Nationals.
Go to https://www.tryopenlane.com/ -> Enter your USMS ID or your profile (if you have an account and have saved it) -> Nationals Event Picker tab.
On the Nationals Event Picker page, you can add various filters, including LCM/SCY events, specify the maximum number of events, compare your times by age group (useful for those moving up), and compare different types of personal best times (default shows all of your events with your personal bests that you've swum in the last two years. You can also choose to compare with your last swum times, your personal bests in your current age group, or your overall personal bests.). You can use this to plan for any Nationals at any time.
Events are shown with the following labels:
Highly Likely:
Less than 10 swimmers in your age group swam these events at Nationals in at least 2 of the last 3 years. Finish legally, and you will likely score in the Top 10'
Likely:
Your time is better than the 10th place finishers at Nationals from the last 3 years
Stretch:
Your time sits between recent 10th-place cuts. Some years you're in the 10th-place cut; some years you're out.
Long Shot:
Your time is much slower than every recent 10th place.
Specifically, for LCM Summer Nationals, you can select the days you'll attend the 2026 USMS Nationals in Sacramento, and it will recommend events corresponding to those days. For example, I'll attend the 2026 USMS Nationals on Thursday and Saturday, and by default, My profile recommends 200 breast and 400 free, since I have swum them at least once in the past two years, and since 10 swimmers or fewer typically swim them. It recommends the 50 free, but also advises me that, based on my personal best in the last two years, it's a long shot for me to get into the Top 10 and how much faster I need to swim to get a Top 10.
The descriptions provide me with data on how many swimmers have swum them in the past three Summer Nationals and, if more than 10 swimmers register, how far away I am from the typical Top 10 cut.
Any feedback is welcome!
P.S. It's a bummer that many mid-distance and distance events are currently capped for the 2026 Summer Nationals, but don't be afraid to add yourself to a waitlist for an event you're highly likely to medal in.