It does seem like a low number, but it will be interesting to see if the number of records broken assumes the same ratio compared to other, better attended meets. Any bets?
On another statistical front, what were the odds against 3 of the top 4 seeds in mens 40-44 100IM all sharing the surname of Smith? Perhaps we should stage a mythical nationals with common surnames competing against each other as teams...
If everyone attends it will be the smallest nationals since 1982.
The last ten years
2001 - Santa Clara - 1850
2000 - Indianapolis - 1390 (Indianapolis took over after another venue could not make it).
1999 - Santa Clara 2060
1998 - Indianapolis 1738
1997 - Federal Way 1438
1996 - Cupertino - 2048
1995 - Ft Lauderdale 1992
1994 - Tempe - 1912
1993 - Santa Clara 2055
1992 - Ft Lauderdale - 1992
michael
The original question in this thread spoke in terms of entries, not entrants (the 1,101 refers to entrants). I notice that in my age group, women 45-49, in the six events that I'm swimming, the total number of swims (assuming no scratches) will be 15 more than in those same events at Santa Clara. I tried to compare total number of entrants in my age group, but the data from prior years did not have a sort function that shows all entrants in a specific age group (as this year's data does). It may be that the great travel distance has resulted in a greater proportion of the attending swimmers being those who qualify to swim six events, or a greater proportion being those who, in middle age, can better afford the travel (I also notice that the highest attendance numbers peak out for women in the 35-39 age group, with 81 entrants, and for the men in the 40-44 age group, with 89 entrants). More manipulation of the statistics would be useful before drawing conclusions about the meaning of the low number of entrants.:cool:
Excellent point Robin, I would imagine that such distance to travel would keep the 'non qualifying' swimmers away. There's been much talk about that in the past, wheter or not to continue the 3 event rule. Could this be the answer?
Also, great point about the affordability/age factor. Notice, some events have no 19-24yr entrants (at least mens). I hate to bring this word up, but I have gotten it thrown at me... elite? Or what Al Gore would refer to, the top 5 percent. :)
Joe
Despite being the most popular age group, and the amazing number of fast Smiths, the depth in the 40-44 mens events is not what it was last year. I can name several top-level swimmers in that age group alone that are not attending, and who regularly attend nationals.
But, I am looking forward to a less-crowded, perhaps more intimate, meet in a beautiful place. The fact that I have a chance to place well in some events gives me even more to anticipate. :)
I suspect the lack of swimmers at the meet will have the greatest effect on the relays.
Janet (or anyone else...),
How do the timelines look for each day? How do they compare with previous nationals that had twice the entrants? My concern is that the meet may run too fast and swimmers may not get enough rest between events. Some may already plan on scratching events which would make the timelines even shorter. Could the meet be run in just one pool, with the longer events (400s & up) run in two?
Henry Clark
