Ok it's 20 days/21 hours/2 minutes and 40 seconds to the start of the 2004 US Olympic Trials. We've just gotten our tickets in the mail and are getting psyched, along with the actual participants, to see the second fastest meet in the world (in some events it will be the fastest meet).
For those you located near Long Beach that don't have tickets you can walk up to ticket booth and buy individal tickets for a number of sessions. You'll get a chance to see one of the most exciting OT in memory.
A lot of attention is been paid to whether Phelps and/or Coughlin will break Mark Spitz record of 7 gold medals in one Olympics. They both have a shot...but as we approach the actual trials one of the more interesting areas of speculation is what events will the multi-talented Phelps/Coughlin swim.
Coughlin's program looks pretty certain to include 100/200 back, 100 free/fly but will she also attempt a fifth event (200free?).
Phelps is certainity in the 100/200 fly 200/400 IM but there is much speculation over his rumored fifth event. The candidates:
200 back (2nd in the world to Peirsol)
100 back (Just lost to Peirsol at Santa Clara but not by much)
200 free (American record holder but far off Thorpe best)
100 free (Might be the fastest American in this event and beat all comers at Santa Clara and will go 48 low)
Or...he could fool us all and stick with 4 individual events and swim all three relays.
What do you think?
Now we see that Coughlin will "only" swim the 100 free and 100 back and presumably will qualify for all three relays so she's shooting for 5 gold medals.
Attention should now be directed to Mr. Phelps. Will he stick to 4 individual events (100/200 fly and 200/400 im) or will he explore a fifth individual event?
Here are some possible fifth events:
200 free (he's the best in the US unless Klete Keller pulls out an incredible swim..but this is an event that requires speed/endurance and STRENGTH. Phelps has enough of all three to beat all US swimmers but can he take out Thorpe? I don't think so, what do you think?)
100 back (same schedule as 200 free. This is Phelps technically most flawless stroke but again the 100s require an element of strength that he just might not have right now. Also Peirsol is swimming very well and did beat Phelps head-to-head at their last meeting. I don't think Phelps willl elect to compete against Peirsol...it's proably not worth the effort to topple a US favorite just to pick up another medal. Also don't think he'll beat him anyway)
200 back (possible but does overlap with other events). I think Phelps can beat Peirsol in this event but will elect to pass since it will require a lot of energy/mental concentration since it does overlap with some of his other events). I'm guessing he'll pass
100 free. I think he'l swim this event. It does overlap with the 200 im semi-final but Phelps is so far ahead of the rest of the field he can afford to make it to the final round of the 200 im after swimming his 100 free. Neither Walker or Crocker were able to swim faster than Phelps last 100 free and based on Phelp's time earlier this year he should go a 48 low (does make you think that he'll probably break 1:44 in the 200 free two years down the road. You can bet that Thorpe sees the handwriting on the wall and will retire shortly after Athens).
So my prediction...he swims the 100 free as his fifth event. Another possiblity is this he swims the 100 free on his "off" day at trials to establish his position on the relay and withdraws from the event before 100 free semis.
We're two weeks away from Trials. What do you think?
Now we see that Coughlin will "only" swim the 100 free and 100 back and presumably will qualify for all three relays so she's shooting for 5 gold medals.
Attention should now be directed to Mr. Phelps. Will he stick to 4 individual events (100/200 fly and 200/400 im) or will he explore a fifth individual event?
Here are some possible fifth events:
200 free (he's the best in the US unless Klete Keller pulls out an incredible swim..but this is an event that requires speed/endurance and STRENGTH. Phelps has enough of all three to beat all US swimmers but can he take out Thorpe? I don't think so, what do you think?)
100 back (same schedule as 200 free. This is Phelps technically most flawless stroke but again the 100s require an element of strength that he just might not have right now. Also Peirsol is swimming very well and did beat Phelps head-to-head at their last meeting. I don't think Phelps willl elect to compete against Peirsol...it's proably not worth the effort to topple a US favorite just to pick up another medal. Also don't think he'll beat him anyway)
200 back (possible but does overlap with other events). I think Phelps can beat Peirsol in this event but will elect to pass since it will require a lot of energy/mental concentration since it does overlap with some of his other events). I'm guessing he'll pass
100 free. I think he'l swim this event. It does overlap with the 200 im semi-final but Phelps is so far ahead of the rest of the field he can afford to make it to the final round of the 200 im after swimming his 100 free. Neither Walker or Crocker were able to swim faster than Phelps last 100 free and based on Phelp's time earlier this year he should go a 48 low (does make you think that he'll probably break 1:44 in the 200 free two years down the road. You can bet that Thorpe sees the handwriting on the wall and will retire shortly after Athens).
So my prediction...he swims the 100 free as his fifth event. Another possiblity is this he swims the 100 free on his "off" day at trials to establish his position on the relay and withdraws from the event before 100 free semis.
We're two weeks away from Trials. What do you think?
