Some quick numbers on the new suits

You guys are so naive .... 2000 times to make it back: 400 IM 4:50.76 and 4:24.36 400 Free men 3:53.2 100 Fly w 1:01.35 100 Bk w 1:04.36 100 Br m 1:03.73 200 Free 1:51.6 Small drops some stay the same some get a little slower - that is normal.

Let's see if this holds - predicting as they are swimming the 100 *** 100 *** 1:10 low 100 Back 55.5 400 Free 4:09.0 About the same for the 100 *** and 100 back today, which is surprising because I thought those two events had really gotten fast recently.

But do you think these three are fully rested? No probably not. But were the French and Australians fully rested earlier this year when they were crushing world records? Was Kitajima fully rested when he crashed the 200 br record? No.

This thread could also be called: Some quick numbers on four years of additional training Some quick numbers on improved knowledge of nutrition Some quick numbers on holding trials in an indoor vs. outdoor pool Some quick numbers on the impact of more professional swimmers over a four-year period Some quick numbers on SDK Some quick numbers on the impact of natural disasters immediately preceeding a timed sporting event Correllation does not imply causation. Do the suits make a difference? Seems like a reasonable hypothesis. Can we attribute performance improvement to the suit without controlling for the many other variables that also lead to performance improvement? Nope. Another confound is LZR high-neck suit vs. legs only. Does anyone really think a LZR legs is going to hack a couple % off your time vs. an FS-Pro high-neck, or even the similar FS-Pro legs?

You can stick your head in the sand and believe what you want, but the numbers don't lie. You're right that the numbers don't lie because there are no numbers. The only people that have any real scientific data to date are the people at NASA and Speedo that did the testing. If you'll notice, they haven't released any of their data or analyses. I have to believe that if they really succeeded in improving performance that much, they would be presenting their research to journals or at conferences. As Daaaaaaaaaaave and Chris said, any quantification of performance gain is purely hypothetical. There is absolutely no way that you can unequivocally state a number and have it be anything other than a guess.

All the other factors are over and above -- that is why the drops are bigger in some events, but the suits are about 1.5-2%. That is actually what they have been claiming all along (Schubert started this). You can stick or head in the sand and believe what you want, but the numbers don't lie. By the end of the Olympics all WRs are going to be on average 1.5%-2% faster than last year. Some more - some less. Ah, the 2% mantra. Just repeat it often enough and it becomes fact. This thread reminds me of the movie "Thank You for Smoking" (which I thought was hysterical).

No, exactly my point. The suit is making people faster even when they aren't rested. Another hypothesis for which we have the same amount of evidence to support is that better training and four years of experience racing is "making people faster when they aren't rested." Or, as far as the Men's 400IM is concerned, a hypothesis could easily be: close competition in a high-stakes race makes "people faster when they aren't rested." BTW, you have to think that Phelps and Lochte are pretty close to fully rested.

I bet they are rested, but not fully rested. Especially Michael. There is absolutely no question his big meet is the Olympics. Trials is merely a necessary stop in the road for him. Daaave, I agree there are other possible factors at play here, but is there any reason these factors have figured in more in the past four years than they have previously? Anecodotal evidence that the latest generation of tech suits are a quantum leap over the previous suits is overwhelming, IMO. I doubt any of us can prove it - but my own "guess" is that the #1 reason for the fast times this year is four years of training timed to peak for Beijing. The #2 reason is an accumulation of training advances around the world over many years. #3 could be suits. #4 could be the psychological effect of the swimsuits (the belief that they are faster).

All the other factors are over and above -- that is why the drops are bigger in some events, but the suits are about 1.5-2%. That is actually what they have been claiming all along (Schubert started this). You can stick or head in the sand and believe what you want, but the numbers don't lie. By the end of the Olympics all WRs are going to be on average 1.5%-2% faster than last year. Some more - some less. Can't wait for the 1:49.9 in the 200 Fly .... You had these type of drops in the 60s and 70s - but not in the last 15 years.

They all swim faster because of a bathing suit. Do you really think that none of these swimmers improved in their swimming abilities???? I have many questions about this. What a bunch of bull wash... All these swimmers are now going to say I improved my times only because I wore this amazing swim suit. I think you will find that if they say this they receive money or some kind of payment to say it is the swim suit.