In the spirit of calmer, more reasoned discourse- I hope to start a swimming-related one that nevertheless could get our juices flowing. Namely, let's get out on a real limb (before U.S. trials) & fearlessly predict results of Olympic events. You may choose as many or few to predict as you wish- and in a few months some of us may look very swimming-wise or perhaps foolish.
I will wade into it with the event that has been thrown open by Ian Thorpes poor sense of balance, the mens 400m free:
The winner is Perkins of Australia in close to world-record time.
Supplementary prediction: there will be no American on that podium.
Former Member
Mark, were those 6 Golds one by Late Bloomers? Early, Late, Mid Bloomers? Or just some people using VO2 Max Shampoo?:D
Originally posted by Rob Copeland
The Bahamas rules with 6.7 Olympic medals per million people(1 gold, 1 silver, 297,00 people), followed by Barbados 3.6 MpM, Iceland 3.5 MpM and Australia with 2.9 MpM.
I didn't realize that Iceland was such the swimming power. Maybe we need to check if they are doping their swimmers. ;)
Originally posted by seltzer
Note: Ervin's retirement notice on swiminfo.
"Unexpected" predictions:
1) Phelp's loses 100 fly and 200 fly. These defeats will spur him on to beat Spitz's 7 golds by adding the 100/200 free to his list of events in 2008.
2) Phelp beats Peirsol in the 200 back and also gets gold in the 200/400 IM. His margin of victory in the IM will be "Spitz"-like and the comparisons/debate will continue until 2008.
3) Someone other than Moses or Kitjima wins the 100 ***
4) Hansen wins the 200 ***
5) Coughlin wins "only" 1 individual gold medal
6) US Men win all three relays for the first time in a long time thanks in large part to Mr. Phelps and Mr. Crocker
Let me say, above all, I do apologize for my English: I'm from Italy;)
As regards the quote, I disagree in a few points:
in my opinion Phelps is gonna win 200fly, Hansen will not win 200 ***
Which medal for Coughlin: she really has to be in a good shape: at the Olympics there's not a second chance as it happens at Australian trials ;)
4x200 free relay gold is for Australia cause its team is too strong
Originally posted by nyswim
I have a feeling this olympics is going to be a disaster, not just for swimmers.
I've just joined this thread, but I agree with nyswm. Right now, I'm not even willing to predict there will be water in the pool. :(
Originally posted by justforfun
How about this question: Which events will Phelps swim at U.S. trials?
I'm thinking:
100 free, 200 free, 100 fly, 200 fly, 200 IM, 400 IM, 200 back
The 100/200 frees are just to qualify for relays...he won't swim them in Athens. Probably the toughest for him to make the U.S. team is 200 back (Perisol and Krazelburg). If he does it, that would leave 5 individual events at the Olympics that he has a legitimate shot to win. Given the heats/semis/finals format, If he is even able to medal in all 5, he's an incredible iron man.
Krazelburg isn't going to swim the 200 back and even if he did, Phelps has passed him by. I don't think he has to swim the 100 and 200 free to get on the relays. I could be wrong about that.
I'd be very surprised if he didn't have to swim the 100/200 free events at trials (and place in the top 6) to qualify for the free relays in Athens. It would be rather "Thorpean" if we just placed him on the relays without competing at trials.
How do you know Krazelburg won't swim the 200 back? I know he's had shoulder surgery, but hadn't heard he was dropping the 200.
I read it somewhere that he'd announced he would only swim the 100. I really don't think it matters. Phelps is just getting better and Lenny would do well just to get back to where he was.
Like I said, I could be wrong about the relays but there's something in the back of my head that says the coaches can pick the teams and that they have in the past put swimmers on relays that were not in the top 6 of the 100 or 200 free. I'll look around for something to support that.
From the US selection criteria
www.usa-swimming.org/.../2004 Athlete Selection June 11 20031.pdf
DISCRETIONARY SELECTION
Discretionary selection will not be used for any swimmers in individual Olympic events from the Olympic Trials. However, all swimmers who are nominated to the Team as submitted to the USOC on or about July 15, 2004 shall be eligible for selection to any and all relays to be held at the Games. The Head Coach, in consultation with the assistant coaches and National Team Director, shall select the swimmers for each relay conducted at the Games. In selecting the relay teams, the Head Coach, in consultation with the assistant coaches and National Team Director, shall consider all available information, including but not limited to each Team Member's Olympic Trials performances (including preliminary times, time trials, and relay lead-off times), past relay performances, Olympic Games performances, personal best performances, Games event schedules, individual workload, other recent results and performances, consistency of performances, health, fitness levels, training preparation, scientific evaluation, and team chemistry. Selection of swimmers for relays shall not be subject to challenge.
If Phelps is swimming well and he still holds the American record for the 200 then I think they would pick him to be on the relay.
I would imagine this rule/guideline is in here for exactly this type of situation.
How about this question: Which events will Phelps swim at U.S. trials?
I'm thinking:
100 free, 200 free, 100 fly, 200 fly, 200 IM, 400 IM, 200 back
The 100/200 frees are just to qualify for relays...he won't swim them in Athens. Probably the toughest for him to make the U.S. team is 200 back (Perisol and Krazelburg). If he does it, that would leave 5 individual events at the Olympics that he has a legitimate shot to win. Given the heats/semis/finals format, If he is even able to medal in all 5, he's an incredible iron man.
