I have a theoretical question. What do you think is the absolute fastest time possible for a human being in the 100 yard freestyle. One way I was looking at it was to start at 1.00 second and say, will anyone ever be able to swim it in 1.00 sec. No. Will anyone ever be able to swim it in 2.00 seconds. No...so on and so on. At what time do you stop and say, hmmm, maybe someday someone would be able to swim that fast.
Elaine (What does the "S." stand for, BTW) -
Sort of and no.
For past events, if you have no knowledge other than the date a record was set and the time, all you can do is see how far it deviates from what might have been "expected" at that time and then set a threshold beyond which we decide that something earthshaking has occured. For example, if we go back far enough to when the 100m record was done as breastroke and then see the first time the record was set as crawl (or some variant), I'd bet the this would give a deviation on the extrapolation of the breaststroke curve that would be very sharp. But without knowledge of exactly what occured to get that deviation you can only give a mathematical interpretation of "paradigm shift". With knowledge of all paradigm shifts, then you can come up with a closer definition of these shifts, but again, you can't define them with certainty even then. (Example: A genetic mutation, a la the Foundation Trilogy, occurs.)
As to the future, although you can look at the effect of a change of x.x standard deviations off an extrapolated curve, it presupposes that this will, or even can, occur. So, for example, if we presuppose that a new technique will be invented that supercedes the crawl, we can get a rough approximation based on the past. But, is it likely and is it likely to be of that magnitude? Probably not.
If I have some time on Monday, I will try to investigate this a bit.
-LBJ
Yes and couldn't you build an interval around the event to take into consideration that the magnitude of the event would probably vary.
The S stands for my first name. LOL
Elaine
Originally posted by jim thornton
It's a very interesting question. Perhaps if someone with algebraic skills and the history of the 100 m world record (this might be a better distance to look at because more people have swum it), you could plot the performances over time. I would assume the rate of improvement has been slowing, and you might be able to come up with some sort of asymtote type line we'll likely never, as a species, bust through.
The problem is that while this is a valid mathematical exercise, it is a bit problematic as a useful exercise. The reason is that this assumes that there can be no paradigmatic shifts in technique, training, rules, or other variables. Still, it might be fun. If I can find a site with the records progression and I have a few minutes (not likely at this time of year, but...), I'd like to look at this problem.
I suspect that the theoretical limit is more complicated and based on a combination of the following:
a) How fast can one react to the starting signal.
b) How far can one go in the air at the start.
c) What is the theoretical limit for underwater speed given one's anthropometric data, up to the legal limit for staying under water.
d) What is the theoretical limit for speed for being on top of the water. (Approx 1 body length per second, I believe.)
e) How quickly can one make a flip turn.
f) How much velocity can be generated off that flip turn and how much streamlining can be affected off the turn.
As was discussed in another thread, I'd bet that all things being equal, height will be a strongly correlated factor (it might have a slight negative correlation for a) and e)).
-LBJ
I find this a very interesting question also.
Would the record progression over the years not reflect those things that you say are being assumed to be held constant from this point on? Have there not been paradigmatic shifts in technique, training, rules, or other variables over the years that the records have been kept? And, therefore, nullify that argument that one would need to assume no shifts in technique, training, rules etc?
One other thought. Once that ultimate record has been obtained, then what?
Originally posted by Leonard Jansen
The problem is that while this is a valid mathematical exercise, it is a bit problematic as a useful exercise.
-LBJ
Well, biggest part of the battle would be identifying and quantifying all the elements that affect out movement, then our movement through the water. Also, one would have to understand and mathematically quantify the limits of what the human body is capable.
Some of the problems in the setup of the whole thing is that scientifically we are still dealing with couple of unknowns... First would be the potential limits of what the human body is capable of (Do I sniff out a huge debate potential here). And, do we take an average human body, or do we attempt to model an ideal athlete, and what is an ideal athlete? (yeap, that could create a mega-debate just there)
The other problem is that certain elements of water's physical properties (like some details of turbulent flow and water viscosity)are still fuzzy to scientists. Some good research potential there.
It would be a very interesting exercise to conduct some tests and then try to scientifically model the extremes.
I'm guesstimating doing this would only be about 20 times as complex as designing a space shuttle ;)
Isn't there a university somewhere that is doing this kind of research already?
Oh Great, now you got me thinking about grad school again...
with times being measured to the hundreth of a second, over time, even very minute drops in time will be possible well into the future. 100m free is a long race, 47 or so seconds currenty. there is ample opportunity with the anticipated advances in science to keep chipping away at the record, even in ever so much smaller slices (thousanths of a second?)
