This is very cool! I'm way behind the curve but with so many swim-less years, that doesn't suprise me.
I do wonder, however, if the sample size is too small in the 18-24 age group to adequately predict the drop off if you were an age group or college swimmer. Just generally browsing the chart, it looks like my actual 18-24 times would put me typically in the X or AAAA group. In the world of USA swimming, though, I know my times at that time, were mostly AA, a couple AAA and two consistent AAAA. Meaning, if more swimmers participated in masters in that age group, I bet the drop off percentages would be steeper. By the time the 30s-40s come around more ex-swimmers get back in the groove and there are more swimmers in general so masters times start looking faster again. Especially in the less contested events like the 400 IM.
For example, at 35, my fastest event is currently at 16% decline after 8 months. I expect to get back into the 5.5% range within a year or two. In the first month I jumped back in the pool, we were talking 58% decline over 18yo times.
My less favorable events are actually closer to a 21% decline and I expect to get back to the 12% range in a year or two.
I, however, have generally not stayed in good active shape. I had a spell of swimming in my late 20's but I was not consistent enough to really make a fitness dent. A guy on my team has stayed in great shape with other sports through the years and within 3 months back in the pool seems to be hitting within close to (within 1-3 seconds) his 18 year old times. He's in the 45-50 age group.
This is very cool! I'm way behind the curve but with so many swim-less years, that doesn't suprise me.
I do wonder, however, if the sample size is too small in the 18-24 age group to adequately predict the drop off if you were an age group or college swimmer. Just generally browsing the chart, it looks like my actual 18-24 times would put me typically in the X or AAAA group. In the world of USA swimming, though, I know my times at that time, were mostly AA, a couple AAA and two consistent AAAA. Meaning, if more swimmers participated in masters in that age group, I bet the drop off percentages would be steeper. By the time the 30s-40s come around more ex-swimmers get back in the groove and there are more swimmers in general so masters times start looking faster again. Especially in the less contested events like the 400 IM.
For example, at 35, my fastest event is currently at 16% decline after 8 months. I expect to get back into the 5.5% range within a year or two. In the first month I jumped back in the pool, we were talking 58% decline over 18yo times.
My less favorable events are actually closer to a 21% decline and I expect to get back to the 12% range in a year or two.
I, however, have generally not stayed in good active shape. I had a spell of swimming in my late 20's but I was not consistent enough to really make a fitness dent. A guy on my team has stayed in great shape with other sports through the years and within 3 months back in the pool seems to be hitting within close to (within 1-3 seconds) his 18 year old times. He's in the 45-50 age group.
