Let's pick the lock: what will Phelps swim at trials/Beijing

RE: Let's pick the lock: what will Phelps swim at trials/Beijing

ande — Tue, 27 May 2008 10:58:09 GMT

the big issue Phelps and Bowman are considering is the order of events at Trials and the Olympics look at how they fall and which FINAL events will he have to swim back to back He's OK with semifinals, he can hold back some and swim for time or place. he will swim the Bolded events 100 fl, 200 fr, fl, & IM and the 400 IM he may swim the 100 back because it falls favorably in the meet order he will probably swim the 100 Free though he could just let his time stand I have a feeling it will take 48.2 - 48.4 to make top 6 BUT if he swims the 200 BK he will have a challenging session in Thursday's Finals and very difficult session on the Friday July 4th Finals because the 200 bk final is before the 200 IM Final, then the 100 fly semi final follows both Lochte will swim the 200 BK & 200 IM I bet Phelps lets lochte and piersol fight out the 200 bk US Olympic Trials order of events (I believe the Olympic order of events is the same) Sunday June 29 - Preliminaries - 11:00 a.m. 400 IM – men 100 Fly – women 400 Free – men 400 IM – women 100 *** – men Sunday June 29 – Finals - 6:45 p.m. 400 IM – men - FINAL 100 Fly – women - semifinal 400 Free –men – FINAL 400 IM – women – FINAL 100 *** – men – semifinal Monday June 30 - Preliminaries - 11:00 a.m. 100 Back – women 200 Free – men 100 *** – women 100 Back – men 400 Free – women Monday June 30 – Finals - 6:45 p.m. 100 Back – women - semifinal 200 Free – men – semifinal 100 Fly – women - FINAL 100 *** – men - FINAL 100 *** – women - semifinal 100 Back – men - semifinal 400 Free – women – FINAL Tuesday July 1 - Preliminaries - 11:00 a.m. 200 Free – women 200 Fly – men 200 IM – women Tuesday July 1 – Finals - 6:45 p.m. 200 Free – women – semifinal 200 Free – men - FINAL 100 Back – women - FINAL 100 Back – men - FINAL 100 *** – women - FINAL 200 Fly – men - semifinal 200 IM – women – semifinal Wednesday July 2 - Preliminaries - 11:00 a.m. 100 Free – men 200 Fly – women 200 *** – men Wednesday July 2 - Finals - 6:45 p.m. 100 Free – men - semifinal 200 Free – women – FINAL 200 Fly – men - FINAL 200 Fly – women - semifinal 200 *** – men - semifinal 200 IM – women – FINAL Thursday July 3 - Preliminaries - 11:00 a.m. 100 Free – women 200 Back – men 200 *** – women 200 IM – men Thursday July 3 – Finals - 6:45 p.m. 200 *** – men - FINAL 100 Free – women – semifinal 200 Back – men - semifinal 200 Fly – women - FINAL 100 Free – men - FINAL 200 *** – women - semifinal 200 IM – men – semifinal Friday July 4 - Preliminaries - 11:00 a.m. 50 Free – men 800 Free – women 100 Fly – men 200 Back – women Friday July 4 - Finals - 6:45 p.m. 50 Free – men - semifinal 200 *** – women - FINAL 200 Back – men – FINAL 200 Back – women - semifinal 200 IM – men - FINAL 100 Free – women - FINAL 100 Fly – men – semifinal Saturday July 5 - Preliminaries - 11:00 a.m. 50 Free – women 1500 Free – men Saturday July 5 - Finals - 6:45 p.m. 200 Back – women - FINAL 100 Fly – men - FINAL 800 Free – women - FINAL 50 Free – men - FINAL 50 Free – women – semifinal July 6 - Sunday No Preliminaries July 6 - Sunday Finals - 6:45 p.m. 50 Free – women - FINAL 1500 Free – men - FINAL

RE: Let's pick the lock: what will Phelps swim at trials/Beijing

Former Member — Tue, 20 May 2008 09:19:38 GMT

I would wait until trials to make declarations about the chances or non-chances of the 4x100 relay. I think psychologically people are comparing 2008 Australia/France with the the 2007 U.S. Team. If those nations's trials changed the complexion of the event then why not Omaha? Lezak swam the best in-season time of his career at the Meet of Champions a few weeks ago (48.75). Grevers and Weber-Gale have already been 48.5 recently. Phelps went a PB in Ohio unrested (48.41) ... a meet where he was well off his best times in other events. I think there is potential for those four. Beyond these four swimmers there is teenager Nathan Adrian. The SC World Champion seems to improve at every big meet. I'm certain he'll be under 49/sec the only question is how far. Remember at the French trials only one swimmer broke 48. The Australian top four swimmers actually just nip the French team if you add up their trials times. But again only one swimmer under 48 at the Aussie trials. If the US can get three or four swimmers to tickle around the 48 mark in trials then they're in good shape.

RE: Let's pick the lock: what will Phelps swim at trials/Beijing

FlyQueen — Tue, 20 May 2008 08:31:20 GMT

OK,,,now I'm changing my mind. Phelps has had a rough year. I don't think he will be able to repeat his 200FR time from last year. I don't think the 400Fr is a possibility either. The choice of events this past weekend were a bit of a surprise. I sense a little bit of panic on Bowmans part. I'm sure he will swim and win the 400IM, although the Hungarian will give him all he can handle. I don't think the Americans will take gold in the 400FR relay in China and I think Phelps knows it. He is going to have to swim 6 individual events to get the magic record. That means taking down both Piersol and Crocker in the 100. Oops, did I just put that in writing. I expect a pretty lack luster freestype performance from him at the trials. He is going to need a win in the 100 fly and 100 back to make it happen! Did you see that split on the 100 back this past weekend- wow...:duel: I'm hoping that was dripping with sarcasim ... seriously a bad year? On what planet?

RE: Let's pick the lock: what will Phelps swim at trials/Beijing

Former Member — Tue, 20 May 2008 07:47:29 GMT

order of events is here: www.h2omaha.com/.../swimming-trials-events.pdf Looking at that a couple of things pop out to me: 1. Its kind of a crappy draw given Michael's skills, the event that he clearly dominates (200 fly) isn't doubled with any other finals to give him some rest, but you play with the hand you are dealt with. 2. Day 3 features the men's 2 free and the 1 back separated by just one event for finals, with 200 IM semis at the end of it. That rules out the 100 back it would seem 3. Day 5 has the 200 back semis/prelims, 200 IM semis/prelims, and 100 free finals. Even assuming that he cruises his prelims and semis, that is still a lot of swims. 4. More importantly, day 6 features 200 back and 200 IM finals basically back to back. I shu=ould have looked up the schedule, because you are right on about point 2. The 200 fly (not IM) semi isn't a big deal for Phelps, he can go a 1:56-57 easily (and it is after the hard races), but having two finals in a row will be tough! Lochte was in the same predicament in 2004 and flat out didn't bother with the 100 back. Seems like the smart thing to do. Regarding the 100 back being deeper than the 100 fly. I think more people will go under 51 (fly) than 53 (back). We'll see...

RE: Let's pick the lock: what will Phelps swim at trials/Beijing

Former Member — Tue, 20 May 2008 06:42:45 GMT

RE: Let's pick the lock: what will Phelps swim at trials/Beijing

Former Member — Mon, 19 May 2008 14:33:00 GMT

RE: Let's pick the lock: what will Phelps swim at trials/Beijing

Former Member — Mon, 19 May 2008 14:12:55 GMT

Should have said... "The only guy safe from having his medal contended with (by Phelps) is Brendan Hansen." Yeah, BH and Kickajima will always have that rivalry.

RE: Let's pick the lock: what will Phelps swim at trials/Beijing

Former Member — Mon, 19 May 2008 13:58:59 GMT

Top 5 100 *** times according to FINA..... 1 HANSEN Brendan USA 1981 59.61 Qual OG 08 / 2008 All-American LC Championships Austin, USA 06-03-2008 2 KITAJIMA Kosuke JPN 1982 59.66 Qual OG 08 / Japan Swim 2008 Tokyo, JPN 15-04-2008 3 DALE OEN Alexander NOR 1985 59.76 Qual OG 08 / 29th LEN European Swimming Championships Eindhoven, NED 18-03-2008 4 DUBOSCQ Hugues FRA 1981 59.78 Qual OG 08 / 29th LEN European Swimming Championships Eindhoven, NED 18-03-2008 5 COOK Christopher GBR 1979 59.88 Qual OG 08 / British Swimming Championships Sheffield, GBR 31-03-2008 In the 200, with the time he swam this weekend, Brendan is 10th with a 2:10.62. Right behind Eric Shanteau.

RE: Let's pick the lock: what will Phelps swim at trials/Beijing

Former Member — Mon, 19 May 2008 13:52:27 GMT

Between Crocker, Piersol, and a mixed bag of sprint freestylers... The only guy safe from having his medal contended with is Brendan Hansen. Lochte may just be the dark horse in all of this. His sprinting ability has really been showcased these past two years. And the underwater kicking is every bit as impressive as Phelps. The IM races should be neck and neck. Just wondering....is Kitajima not swimming in Beijing? If he is, how far off is he from Hansen's current times?

RE: Let's pick the lock: what will Phelps swim at trials/Beijing

Former Member — Mon, 19 May 2008 13:47:22 GMT

I was talking about his 100 back at last summer nats last year. He was definitely going for the record and I believe went a 53.01 ... that's off the top of my head. I think he swims the 100 back AND the 200 free. That's what I meant too. Summer Nats. The guy in the next lane went out in WR pace. When Phelps saw he was losing ground at the flags... he pounded out his trademark 15 meters of dolphin kick, and split the fastest back half 50 ever....just missing the record. abcnews.go.com/.../wireStory Between Crocker, Piersol, and a mixed bag of sprint freestylers... The only guy safe from having his medal contended with is Brendan Hansen. Lochte may just be the dark horse in all of this. His sprinting ability has really been showcased these past two years. And the underwater kicking is every bit as impressive as Phelps. The IM races should be neck and neck.

RE: Let's pick the lock: what will Phelps swim at trials/Beijing

ande — Mon, 19 May 2008 12:31:42 GMT

he won't swim the 50 fr, 1,500 fr, 100 br, & 200 br he could swim the 400 free but probably not Michael will to swim the 100 & 200 fly 200 & 400 IM 200 free he has an excellent 100 & 200 back so probably the 200 back & 100 backstroke he comes home amazingly fast in the both the 100 & 200 bk probably the 100 free so he will have a time from Olympic Trials to get on the 4 x 100 relay and not have the controversy he faced in 2004 where he didn't swim the 100 free but swam it on a relay at the Olympics much to Gary Hall's dismay and protest. I would have him swim it once, post a blazing time then scratch the semi's and finals, but he'll probably swim all the way through He's amazing at back to back events in the same session It's supposed to be a secret, but what will the boy swim this summer? Definite, TRIALS 200 fly 200 IM 400 IM 200 free (especially for 800 free relay) Probable, TRIALS 100 fly (especially for 400 medley relay) 100 free Maybe, TRIALS 200 back 400 free??? (I have NO idea; it doesn't seem like he's training for it) Definite, BEIJING 200 fly 200 IM 400 IM But what would his other 2 individual events be? EDIT: mod edited for me!

RE: Let's pick the lock: what will Phelps swim at trials/Beijing

Former Member — Mon, 19 May 2008 10:05:55 GMT

Lefty, he swam the 200 back. Does that mean he's considering it? Realistically, the 100 fly is less competitive at the top end than the 100 back. It's much deeper than just Peirsol. You have Lochte, Bal, and others at US Trials. Then you have swimmers like Tancock, Meeuw, etc internationally who are much more in the thick of things than the other rivals besides Crocker in the 100 fly. Tancock ripped the 50m back record by an astonishing .4 seconds. But he declined to swim the 100 back at the same meet (UK Trials) since he already qualified for the team from his podium finish at Worlds last year. To give you an idea ... Tancock finished third in the 50 backstroke at World Championships in 25.2. A full 8/10ths slower than what he swam this year. He won the bronze in the 100 back there in 53.6. If you extrapolate the 50 WR to his 100 he's well below 53sec. His best time last year in the 100 is 53.46. His 50 back time is ominous for what he might do in the 100. He has a 1:57 200IM so he's got the endurance. Then you have Meeuw who went 53.10 at the German trials to break the European Record. Granted, he has yet to clear the hurdle of performing at the big international events. Yet, it's clear that the 100 fly doesn't have this depth. So I believe the 100 fly is looking better for two reasons: 1. The 100 back is much less of a two man show 2. The 100 fly fits into his schedule better. The 100 back and the 200 free in the same session seems unpalatable. He shouldn't be taking PVK and Park for granted. If he decides to crowd that day with two events he will hurt his chances at winning both. His best option is to swim the same program he did at Worlds and perhaps the 100 free prelim heats at trials. He should swim the 400IM as it's on the first day of morning finals and it doesn't conflict with other events.

RE: Let's pick the lock: what will Phelps swim at trials/Beijing

Former Member — Mon, 19 May 2008 09:39:44 GMT

Why drop the 400 IM? That's a sure fire gold for him.

RE: Let's pick the lock: what will Phelps swim at trials/Beijing

Former Member — Mon, 19 May 2008 09:35:16 GMT

On a comparitive basis, Phleps 100 back is closer to Peirsol than his 100 fly is to Crocker. If both are at 100% Phelps would probably lose to Crocker in 100 fly. Phelps would beat Piersol under the same proposition because the 53.01 kind of came out of nowhere at just a mid-major meet. Entries are due really soon, he enters: 100 free 100 fly 100 back 200IM 200Fly 200 Free 200 Back 400IM He never gets in the water for the 200 back though, only swims prelims in the 100 free (like Ande suggested). If he smashes the WR in the 100 back at trials, he might drop the 400 IM at the Olympics. Now is not a time to be experimenting, he swam the 100 back this weekend because he is strongly considering it.

RE: Let's pick the lock: what will Phelps swim at trials/Beijing

Former Member — Sun, 18 May 2008 13:28:20 GMT

I think if people are counting anyone out it is Lochte. Everyone has seen Peirsol beat out Phelps in the 200 at the touch multiple times, so it would be silly to count him out, but unless I'm mistaken Lochte has never raced Phelps in the 200 back. The most sick thing about the whole situation is I don't think anyone would be surprised of someone breaking the old world record doesn't even make the team if Phelps swims. Also, there is no need for Phelps to prove he can beat Crocker, the only thing he needs to do is break Crocker's WR, as Phelps has won head to head many times, most recently at Melbourne.

RE: Let's pick the lock: what will Phelps swim at trials/Beijing

Former Member — Sun, 18 May 2008 12:28:41 GMT

200 back (no worse than #2, could be #1) Lochte, Peirsol... both guys could place above him in the 200 back.

RE: Let's pick the lock: what will Phelps swim at trials/Beijing

Former Member — Sun, 18 May 2008 11:47:01 GMT

Nothing other than being .03 off of Peirsol's WR last year ... He took it out in a moderate pace, saw he was a little behind at the wall...and only started moving after the turn. If he went faster on the way he'd own that record too.

RE: Let's pick the lock: what will Phelps swim at trials/Beijing

Former Member — Sun, 18 May 2008 11:26:17 GMT

I think we'll see this in Beijing: 100 fly 200 fly 200 IM 400 IM 200 Free 400 free relay 800 free relay 400 medley relay Golds: 8 Just my guess. I agree. Sticking with the program from last year's World Championships seems smartest. As Fly Queen mentioned I remember Phelps commenting that the 200 back hurts more than any other event for him because it kills his legs. I don't know if he'll win eight golds but it will be fun watching him try.

RE: Let's pick the lock: what will Phelps swim at trials/Beijing

Former Member — Sun, 18 May 2008 11:03:10 GMT

RE: Let's pick the lock: what will Phelps swim at trials/Beijing

Former Member — Sun, 18 May 2008 10:52:16 GMT

Nothing indicates that he'll do the 100 back, at least that I can think of. The other question(s) would be: Who's his competition for taking the gold in each event? 100 fly: Crocker 200 fly: nobody 200 IM: Lochte, ?? 400 IM: ?? 200 free: don't know :( 200 back: Piersol and/or Lochte (at trials)

RE: Let's pick the lock: what will Phelps swim at trials/Beijing

Former Member — Sun, 18 May 2008 09:59:53 GMT

100free 100fly 100back 200IM 200free 200fly ?........? 400IM 400 medley relay 800 free relay

RE: Let's pick the lock: what will Phelps swim at trials/Beijing

FlyQueen — Sun, 18 May 2008 08:58:30 GMT

No way he swims 100 back. He is the WR holder in 200 free he will swim it. Definite for Trials: 200fly 200im 400im 200free 100 fly (prove he can beat Crocker) 100 free (he'll be no worse than #3, could be #1) 200 back (no worse than #2, could be #1) He'll choose the best 6. He'll be on three relays. I feel like so many people are counting Peirsol out in backstroke. He's going to be so fired up at trials and in Beijing I'd bet good money he'll repeat his double gold ... I think his ONE loss last year in the 2 back (we aren't counting Duel) pissed him off enough that he isn't going to let it happen again. He knows who is out there and he'll step up when he needs to. Keep in mind that he is probably only swimming two events at trials as compared to Lochte and Phelps' 4-7?

RE: Let's pick the lock: what will Phelps swim at trials/Beijing

FlyQueen — Sun, 18 May 2008 08:56:08 GMT

He took it out in a moderate pace, saw he was a little behind at the wall...and only started moving after the turn. If he went faster on the way he'd own that record too. I was talking about his 100 back at last summer nats last year. He was definitely going for the record and I believe went a 53.01 ... that's off the top of my head. I think he swims the 100 back AND the 200 free.

RE: Let's pick the lock: what will Phelps swim at trials/Beijing

Former Member — Sun, 18 May 2008 07:44:32 GMT

I think he will do: 200 fly 200 free 200 IM 4x200 free relay 100 free for relay spots 4x100 free relay 4x100 medley relay (he can do any leg other than ***) 400 IM 100 fly 100 back I don't think that he will try the 200 back but it is possible.

RE: Let's pick the lock: what will Phelps swim at trials/Beijing

Former Member — Sun, 18 May 2008 07:05:34 GMT

I think we'll see this in Beijing: 100 fly 200 fly 200 IM 400 IM 200 Free 400 free relay 800 free relay 400 medley relay Golds: 8 Just my guess.