fearless Olympic predictions

RE: fearless Olympic predictions

Former Member — Mon, 26 Apr 2004 16:39:46 GMT

Here's an interesting article from today's Baltimore Sun. Click here to read it. It's worth it, given the recent discussion here.

RE: fearless Olympic predictions

Former Member — Mon, 26 Apr 2004 15:44:02 GMT

That's good news for Phelps (concerning the relays)...it could make his U.S. trials load a little lighter.

RE: fearless Olympic predictions

Former Member — Wed, 21 Apr 2004 15:12:04 GMT

How about this question: Which events will Phelps swim at U.S. trials? I'm thinking: 100 free, 200 free, 100 fly, 200 fly, 200 IM, 400 IM, 200 back The 100/200 frees are just to qualify for relays...he won't swim them in Athens. Probably the toughest for him to make the U.S. team is 200 back (Perisol and Krazelburg). If he does it, that would leave 5 individual events at the Olympics that he has a legitimate shot to win. Given the heats/semis/finals format, If he is even able to medal in all 5, he's an incredible iron man.

RE: fearless Olympic predictions

Former Member — Wed, 21 Apr 2004 15:01:39 GMT

From the US selection criteria www.usa-swimming.org/.../2004 Athlete Selection June 11 20031.pdf DISCRETIONARY SELECTION Discretionary selection will not be used for any swimmers in individual Olympic events from the Olympic Trials. However, all swimmers who are nominated to the Team as submitted to the USOC on or about July 15, 2004 shall be eligible for selection to any and all relays to be held at the Games. The Head Coach, in consultation with the assistant coaches and National Team Director, shall select the swimmers for each relay conducted at the Games. In selecting the relay teams, the Head Coach, in consultation with the assistant coaches and National Team Director, shall consider all available information, including but not limited to each Team Member's Olympic Trials performances (including preliminary times, time trials, and relay lead-off times), past relay performances, Olympic Games performances, personal best performances, Games event schedules, individual workload, other recent results and performances, consistency of performances, health, fitness levels, training preparation, scientific evaluation, and team chemistry. Selection of swimmers for relays shall not be subject to challenge. If Phelps is swimming well and he still holds the American record for the 200 then I think they would pick him to be on the relay. I would imagine this rule/guideline is in here for exactly this type of situation.

RE: fearless Olympic predictions

Former Member — Wed, 21 Apr 2004 14:51:14 GMT

I read it somewhere that he'd announced he would only swim the 100. I really don't think it matters. Phelps is just getting better and Lenny would do well just to get back to where he was. Like I said, I could be wrong about the relays but there's something in the back of my head that says the coaches can pick the teams and that they have in the past put swimmers on relays that were not in the top 6 of the 100 or 200 free. I'll look around for something to support that.

RE: fearless Olympic predictions

Former Member — Wed, 21 Apr 2004 10:21:51 GMT

I'd be very surprised if he didn't have to swim the 100/200 free events at trials (and place in the top 6) to qualify for the free relays in Athens. It would be rather "Thorpean" if we just placed him on the relays without competing at trials. How do you know Krazelburg won't swim the 200 back? I know he's had shoulder surgery, but hadn't heard he was dropping the 200.

RE: fearless Olympic predictions

Former Member — Wed, 21 Apr 2004 06:01:56 GMT

Originally posted by justforfun How about this question: Which events will Phelps swim at U.S. trials? I'm thinking: 100 free, 200 free, 100 fly, 200 fly, 200 IM, 400 IM, 200 back The 100/200 frees are just to qualify for relays...he won't swim them in Athens. Probably the toughest for him to make the U.S. team is 200 back (Perisol and Krazelburg). If he does it, that would leave 5 individual events at the Olympics that he has a legitimate shot to win. Given the heats/semis/finals format, If he is even able to medal in all 5, he's an incredible iron man. Krazelburg isn't going to swim the 200 back and even if he did, Phelps has passed him by. I don't think he has to swim the 100 and 200 free to get on the relays. I could be wrong about that.

RE: fearless Olympic predictions

Former Member — Sun, 18 Apr 2004 06:04:41 GMT

Originally posted by nyswim I have a feeling this olympics is going to be a disaster, not just for swimmers. I've just joined this thread, but I agree with nyswm. Right now, I'm not even willing to predict there will be water in the pool. :(

RE: fearless Olympic predictions

Former Member — Sun, 18 Apr 2004 05:24:24 GMT

Originally posted by seltzer Note: Ervin's retirement notice on swiminfo. "Unexpected" predictions: 1) Phelp's loses 100 fly and 200 fly. These defeats will spur him on to beat Spitz's 7 golds by adding the 100/200 free to his list of events in 2008. 2) Phelp beats Peirsol in the 200 back and also gets gold in the 200/400 IM. His margin of victory in the IM will be "Spitz"-like and the comparisons/debate will continue until 2008. 3) Someone other than Moses or Kitjima wins the 100 *** 4) Hansen wins the 200 *** 5) Coughlin wins "only" 1 individual gold medal 6) US Men win all three relays for the first time in a long time thanks in large part to Mr. Phelps and Mr. Crocker Let me say, above all, I do apologize for my English: I'm from Italy;) As regards the quote, I disagree in a few points: in my opinion Phelps is gonna win 200fly, Hansen will not win 200 *** Which medal for Coughlin: she really has to be in a good shape: at the Olympics there's not a second chance as it happens at Australian trials ;) 4x200 free relay gold is for Australia cause its team is too strong

RE: fearless Olympic predictions

mattson — Sat, 17 Apr 2004 12:26:50 GMT

Originally posted by Rob Copeland The Bahamas rules with 6.7 Olympic medals per million people(1 gold, 1 silver, 297,00 people), followed by Barbados 3.6 MpM, Iceland 3.5 MpM and Australia with 2.9 MpM. I didn't realize that Iceland was such the swimming power. Maybe we need to check if they are doping their swimmers. ;)

RE: fearless Olympic predictions

Former Member — Fri, 16 Apr 2004 13:15:22 GMT

Mark, were those 6 Golds one by Late Bloomers? Early, Late, Mid Bloomers? Or just some people using VO2 Max Shampoo?:D

RE: fearless Olympic predictions

Former Member — Fri, 16 Apr 2004 11:55:21 GMT

Oh my goodness, on another thread we debate the Thorpe Saga, will he or won't he, should he or shouldn't he...but what about my prediction in the 400m free? I'm out on this long limb...should I withdraw it on a technicality if Thorpe swims or be brave, be bold, be very un-Canadian and YES! I will stick with it, Hackett will win whether or not Thorpedo launches himself into the event despite the withering scorn being directed his way. Of course, I could be wrong....

RE: fearless Olympic predictions

Former Member — Fri, 16 Apr 2004 06:22:42 GMT

Just out of pure interest,how would Olympic medals tables look if they were adjusted for the size of the countries that won medals.For example,if a country with 1/2 the population of USA won 6 golds and USA won 10 golds then the smaller country winning 6 golds would appear higher in the table.:cool:

RE: fearless Olympic predictions

Rob Copeland — Fri, 16 Apr 2004 04:18:12 GMT

Mark On a population based scale, ignoring the late bloomer factor, The Bahamas rules with 6.7 Olympic medals per million people(1 gold, 1 silver, 297,00 people), followed by Barbados 3.6 MpM, Iceland 3.5 MpM and Australia with 2.9 MpM. Britain (0.46) and the USA (0.34) are in the middle of the pack and India comes in last with 1 bronze for 1 Billion+ people.

RE: fearless Olympic predictions

Former Member — Thu, 15 Apr 2004 13:18:36 GMT

Originally posted by mark_varney47 Hmmm do I detect a pro-USA viewpoint here folks.How about Great Britain?How many gold medals?I say three. Mark We can't help it if the US is the best!!!!:D

RE: fearless Olympic predictions

Former Member — Thu, 15 Apr 2004 13:01:55 GMT

Originally posted by mark_varney47 Hmmm do I detect a pro-USA viewpoint here folks.How about Great Britain?How many gold medals?I say three. Mark OK. Name them.

RE: fearless Olympic predictions

swimr4life — Thu, 15 Apr 2004 11:10:45 GMT

U S A! U S A! U S A! U S A! :p

RE: fearless Olympic predictions

mattson — Thu, 15 Apr 2004 10:12:25 GMT

Originally posted by mark_varney47 Hmmm do I detect a pro-USA viewpoint here folks. I'm shocked and appalled to find a pro-USA sentiment on a USMS discussion board. ;)

RE: fearless Olympic predictions

Former Member — Thu, 15 Apr 2004 06:36:22 GMT

Hmmm do I detect a pro-USA viewpoint here folks.How about Great Britain?How many gold medals?I say three. Mark

RE: fearless Olympic predictions

Former Member — Thu, 15 Apr 2004 06:35:20 GMT

It is true that the US is tops in swimming. Why? (AND) There are so many other sports to play herewhere you can earn a living, the best US athletes have NO desire to be swimmers. I can't come up with a reasonable answer. Priviliged US children learn to swim earlier?

RE: fearless Olympic predictions

Former Member — Thu, 15 Apr 2004 06:28:20 GMT

Don't let the door hit you in the #$% on the way out! If'n y'all don't like it!!!:D We are kind of stuck up ain't we? Guess that's what happens when you're the best;) :D ;) :D I'm synchronizing with Beth... U S A! U S A! U S A! U S A!:p

RE: fearless Olympic predictions

Former Member — Wed, 14 Apr 2004 13:12:47 GMT

Note: Ervin's retirement notice on swiminfo. "Unexpected" predictions: 1) Phelp's loses 100 fly and 200 fly. These defeats will spur him on to beat Spitz's 7 golds by adding the 100/200 free to his list of events in 2008. 2) Phelp beats Peirsol in the 200 back and also gets gold in the 200/400 IM. His margin of victory in the IM will be "Spitz"-like and the comparisons/debate will continue until 2008. 3) Someone other than Moses or Kitjima wins the 100 *** 4) Hansen wins the 200 *** 5) Coughlin wins "only" 1 individual gold medal 6) US Men win all three relays for the first time in a long time thanks in large part to Mr. Phelps and Mr. Crocker

RE: fearless Olympic predictions

Former Member — Wed, 14 Apr 2004 12:39:36 GMT

I am going out on a limb and saying that Phelps will do it!:p If anyone can, it is him! Incredible talent! I just hope the facility is done and that there are no problems with security! GO USA:D

RE: fearless Olympic predictions

Former Member — Wed, 14 Apr 2004 07:31:16 GMT

Crocker wins 100m fly. Jenny Thompson's win in 50m free comes from her talent, dedication and her race experience. I think the Athens scene will be hot & chaotic (hopefully not terrorized) & it will take more than a racer's routine poise to be a champion at these Games.

RE: fearless Olympic predictions

Former Member — Tue, 13 Apr 2004 15:50:29 GMT

:::Perhaps we should move this discussion onto the Olympic predictions thread. I don't necessarily disagree with Lefty's prediction of US victory in the 400 free relay but merely wanted to point out the race will be CLOSE. Neil Walker has not improved his time in several years and while Jason Lezak did become a better sprinter post-Olympics neither swimmer is a sure thing to get that much better in the Olympic. Gary Hall has been out of serious training for quite some time and really has never done better than Kapralov with flat start. I think it extremely unlikely that Hall will swim faster in 2004 than 2000, even though he is an incredible talent. So where are the up and coming US sprinters beyond Crocker (who is still not the most consistent free sprinter LCM) and Phelps (granted is improving and is the X factor for the US). I see a VERY tight race in the 400 free unlike the Medley where the US should be able to win with some significant margin. I copied and pasted and don't know the key strokes to do the quote thing correctly. The above was posted in "the fastest masters club ever" page for reference.In the past 12 months both Walker and Lezak have split sub 48. Walker at Dual in the Pool, Lezak multiple times. Hall is definitely training seriously, I am not sure where you got that info but it is inaccurate. Crocker hasn't been inconsistent; he just wasn't that good until last summer! But He and Phelps are still wildcards in the 100 free though so I won't count those chickens just yet. If both slip there is still Tucker. One point we agree on: The 400 free will be closer than the 400 medley. I highly doubt a world All-star team would be favored against the US. In terms of upsets, (fearless predictions) I will stick with what I wrote before, the US will win the 800 free relay, and Crocker will win the 100 Free. Jenny T could win the 50, but not because of the logic presented here. Every swimmer in the final will be able to cope with conditions: they are all seasoned pros, even if some are only 18! (If you watch college basketball, you will occasionally hear an announcer saying "that was a brilliant basketball play by the upper-classman." The next year in the NBA, the same player is accused of making "rookie mistakes." What, did the guy get dumber?) (Another beef, since we (me) are on them: Announcers who confuse notoriety with fame. *** Enberg does this ALL the time.)